I got serious about fantasy football about seven years ago. We’d have the occasional fantasy-focused guest on the show to let us know, maybe, whether Le’Veon Bell deserved to be the top pick, or how early was too early to pick the current dual-threat quarterback, Cam Newton.
I can remember making the point in some of those conversations how there weren’t many Buffalo Bills players worth talking about, in terms of fantasy relevance. Just one name, LeSean McCoy, who was about a late-first round pick at that time.
(It’s fun to look back on rankings from a few years back, and see how many names are just completely off the radar now. The TE1 in 2015 was Rob Gronkowski – sure – but the TE2 was Gary Barnidge. Heck, I watched Barnidge post-retirement compete on a season of The Amazing Race, and even that isn’t too recent.)
It made sense how Bills things looked to fantasy players in 2015. It was Rex Ryan Time. “Ground and Pound”, baby.
Now, however? Quite different, obviously.
Let’s take a look at the Bills’ skill-position players and report on what the fantasy crowd sees as likely to happen in 2022. I’ll rank them by average draft position (ADP), and I’ll use FantasyPros data.
12.) Stefon Diggs - WR5
Your average fantasy league has 12 teams, which puts Diggs right on the back-end of Round 1. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson in some order almost always go top-three, and often within the first five picks. Then it gets interesting at receiver, as we see Diggs in a tier, mainly, with Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb and Deebo Samuel.
Diggs is first on my list from that tier, with just fewer questions about the Bills’ situation than those players’ teams. As long as you don’t predict age regression from Diggs – and I probably will be by 2024 – he should smash.
23.) Josh Allen - QB1
Allen has so convinced fantasy players of his all-around excellence that he goes in Round 2 – insane for a quarterback, in my opinion. Even when Allen struggled to complete a respectable percentage of passes, he still gave fantasy players such rushing output that he had value then. Now it’s on a different level, however, coming in at QB1 each of the last two seasons.
In tournament play, where teams that “win” their leagues graduate to play against other league winners for big money in late-season weeks, “stacking” players from the same team is common strategy. Allen and Diggs are the most-expensive stack in the league.
74.) Devin Singletary - RB29
Singletary popped late in the season, staying on the field for almost every Bills snap down the stretch. But the reasons he ranks so low among starting running backs are pretty obvious.
The rush-attempt volume just hasn’t been there on such a pass-oriented offense, Singletary doesn’t get many passing targets, and Allen vultures red zone touchdown opportunities. Add to that this year a second-round pick, James Cook.
I don’t see a high ceiling for Singletary, and thus in every draft there’s someone in that sixth-to-seventh round range I like more.
86.) Gabriel Davis - WR37
Davis falls just outside the WR3 range (36 players) on this list, but I see him go much higher in many drafts. 86th overall means Round 8, but I see him go in Round 4 – often to the Allen team.
There is a lot of hype around Davis. If he’s able to blend his strengths of size and contested-catch ability with increased (doubled?) volume this year, a WR2 (top-24) outcome may be likely. I don’t want to draft him as a WR2, because I see that as the ceiling. But as a WR3 or certainly WR4, yes please.
100.) Dawson Knox - TE10
I think we’ll be arguing about Knox’s value a lot in the coming year. He’s made plenty of big plays, and last year he put up nine touchdowns, affording him a top-five fantasy season among tight ends. But fantasy players know how fragile touchdown numbers are, and Knox just hasn’t been thrown to enough for me to think he’s reliable at that level. Accordingly, despite how lethal the Bills’ offense has been, I never draft Knox.
He's a fun personality (who by the way plays fantasy football), and I think largely a fan favorite. But unless his role expands this year I would not want the Bills to give him a new big contract next offseason - and look at it, Jamison Crowder, O.J. Howard, Khalil Shakir, the return of Isaiah McKenzie, passes to Cook - do you think Knox’s role will expand? I do not.
124.) James Cook - RB42
This will be really interesting. There are some conflicting factors here. Clearly the Bills wanted a pass-catching running back, as they made their move on J.D. McKissic in free agency. Now Cook in Round 2? We know the Bills a player for this role a significant priority.
His production this year will come at whose expense, however? In 17 games last year Bills running backs caught 70 passes. Best-case scenario I think if Cook absorbs some of departed Cole Beasley’s volume, and I think there’s a decent chance that happens, but you still have to wonder given Crowder, Shakir, Howard, etc.
I think drafting Cook in this range is OK, but I’d rather draft other players who go around him, such as Alexander Mattison of the Minnesota Vikings – a player who’d you would expect very big things from if starter Dalvin Cook were unavailable. James Cook (Dalvin’s brother) does not appear to provide that.
That’s pretty much the list. You can throw your darts at the potential slot options (Crowder goes as WR71), but I’m not confident enough in knowing who the Bills primarily want for that role. If Crowder, Shakir and McKenzie are all on the roster, how could you start any of them in fantasy?
I think Howard is a really fun player with serious talent, but my guess is the Bills want him more for his blocking prowess to improve their run game, so I’m not drafting him either.
Up top, with Allen and Diggs, the Bills offer fantasy players immense potential. But upon analysis, it’s not a deep team for fantasy. The real wild card is Davis, as he offers the potential for the Bills to have two top-24 wide receivers.
