Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - Coming into the 2024 Buffalo Bills season, a lot of the messaging from and around the team was about this being a transition year. With that came diminished expectations of what they could accomplish.
Bills general manager Brandon Beane, himself, called this season a "transition year". Many fans took that and accepted the fact that this may be a season where it's just about finding a way to get into the playoffs, and seeing what happens from there.
However, through one month of the season, things are lining up for the Bills to get right back to "Super Bowl or bust" expectations.
Through six games, the Bills are 4-2, with two big road wins against their biggest threats in the AFC East. Half of the reason the Bills are back to Super Bowl or bust is their division is not putting up the fight we thought it could, at least so far.
The Bills have a game-and-a-half lead on the Miami Dolphins, who sit at 2-3, and a two-game lead over the 2-4 New York Jets, beating both in their own buildings.
To win the AFC East, the Dolphins would almost definitely have to do something they never do, beat the Bills. The Jets would have to beat the Bills, and likely be two games better in their other games.
The math is tough for both of them.
The Dolphins are expected to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back in Week 8, so we'll see if they can hang around and make this a conversation. Same with the Jets, as they likely introduce Davante Adams to the offense this Sunday night.
As of now, the Bills' odds to win the AFC East is -390, which equates to a 79.6% chance to win it. The division is far less competitive than preseason expectations. The Bills could easily cruise to a home playoff game, if they win the games they're supposed to.
The second part of why the Bills' expectations are heightened from the preseason is the addition of wide receiver Amari Cooper.
The Bills always felt one player away, to me. Yes, tons of veterans including Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis, and others left in the offseason, but the Bills have done a fine job replacing all of them.
No, Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp are not Poyer and Hyde at safety, but the Bills have been perfectly fine when they're on the field. No big mistakes from those two, and the biggest safety woe of the season came when rookie Cole Bishop was pressed into duty against the Houston Texans.
Connor McGovern has struggled in pass protection at times, but is Pro Football Focus' seventh-best run blocking center in the NFL thus far. He's been going fine as a replacement for Morse.
Keon Coleman is also doing just fine replacing Davis as the physical perimeter receiver that blocks and makes a big play here-and-there.
The one guy that was really making this a transition year? Stefon Diggs.
The Bills hadn't replaced Diggs' role in the offense even a little bit. There was no player capable of getting open on his own when the structure of the offense wasn't working. No player capable of beating a good corner and getting open. No player capable of dragging any defensive attention to the outside, thus making Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid's jobs in the middle that much harder.
Now the Bills have that player.
Cooper is going to provide the Bills with a final piece of the puzzle to their offense. Assuming he's able to produce at the level he has almost every year of his career, he makes the Bills offense whole.
Now, I don't know if I could tell you they badly need anything on offense.
An elite quarterback. A top-10 offensive line. Three productive running backs. At least, an above average tight end room. A very good slot receiver. A jump ball receiver. And now, a route runner that gets open on the outside and down the field.
What's left?
Combine that with a defense that's 12th in DVOA and that's with a bunch of backups getting pressed into duty, as well as a division that's lacking, the Bills are one of the big-four in the AFC.
They'll have to prove they can beat the other three, and that might seem tough right now. They've already lost to Houston and the Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City is... well... Kansas City.
