Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - The Buffalo Bills defense has been surviving over the last several weeks.
Withstanding injuries to three of it's most important players - Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones - the Buffalo defense is one of only two in the NFL that has not given up 30 points all season.
But with those injuries, are they even good?
Looking at advanced stats like DVOA or EPA/play, the Bills' defense would be a tale of two seasons. Dominant early in the year when everyone was healthy, and horrible once everyone was injured.
From Weeks 6-11, the Bills defensive EPA/play is 22nd in the NFL, which is not good. Yet, they never allowed more than 30 points, and held the Cincinnati Bengals to just three points in the second half in Week 8.
This Bills defense may just be the ultimate "bend, but don't break" defense, allowing teams to move the ball against them with the intent of forcing field goals, and just ensuring no big-play touchdowns go over the top.
Another explanation could be maybe the Bills have just played soft competition.
This is certainly a likely explanation for the results, playing the likes of Tyrod Taylor, Zach Wilson, and Baker Mayfield. It's tough to see anyone giving up big point totals to those offenses.
None of this mentions a horrific performance that saw Mac Jones' New England Patriots score 29 points on the Bills, including a last-minute game-winning touchdown drive.
Embarrassing. Pathetic. No excuse for that performance.
As bad as the New England game was defensively, the Bills made up for it in Cincinnati. If the Bills defense was fully healthy, I wouldn't expect to do much better than allowing 24 points.
The Bengals were able to move the ball against the Bills, but when it was time to get them off the field to force short punts, the Bills did. When it was time to stop the run, not to allow the Bengals to run the clock out, the Bills did.
Now it's time to play several top offenses in a row: Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins.
In their final six games, the Bills play five top offenses. They're not going to be able to take a breath.
With that said, is the Bills defense about to give up a bunch of giant performances? I'm skeptical that side of the ball will suddenly crater, even with tougher matchups.
As much as the Bills are losing in White, Milano, and Jones, they've done a solid job filling in with Rasul Douglas, Linval Joseph, and Tyrel Dodson.
Douglas has stepped in after being qcquired at the trade deadline from the Green Bay Packers and has, arguably, been as good as White was. In addition to locking down a few No. 1 wideouts, Douglas is also forcing turnovers.
Joseph has come in and fixed the Bills' run defense. After allowing over five yards per-carry in almost every game this year, the Bills have yet to allow four yards per-carry since signing the veteran defensive tackle.
Speaking of run defense, Dodson is Pro Football Focus' No. 1 graded run defending linebacker on the season. Head coach Sean McDermott has done a good job moving Jordan Poyer down to linebacker on pass downs, as to not expose Dodson.
Yes, you'd rather have White, Milano, and Jones, but it's not like the Bills are filling in those spots with practice squad guys.
On top of the new pieces, the Bills' defensive line is a legitimate strength again. One that could carry the rest of the defense, if need be.
Leonard Floyd is up to 9.5 sacks this season, while A.J. Epenesa is having a career year, and Ed Oliver has been on a tear all season.
Even with Von Miller being a non-factor, the Bills look like a team that can consistently get pressure with four pass rushers.
What does all this add up to?
No, I do not expect the Bills to go into Philadelphia and Kansas City and completely shut down those offenses. However, I also don't expect them to get their heads caved in.
What we're probably looking at right now with the Bills' defense is a middle-of-the-road defense in the NFL that's good enough to make the playoffs with, and good enough to win the Super Bowl with if they get there.
