The Broncos officially laid out their cards on the table for Russell Wilson, and so did the Seahawks, for that matter.
But why am I talking about the new Denver quarterback in a Saints column? Don’t worry, I’m getting there -- because the megatrade that landed Denver its shiny new starting quarterback was possibly the last domino in the Saints landing theirs with a wild free agency period set to kick off next week.
And if you haven’t guessed by now, I’m talking about Teddy Bridgewater, who played the 2021 season at Mile High Stadium, starting games for his third franchise in as many seasons.
So first, let’s establish the potential options left on the board for the Saints, with Wilson now in Denver, Aaron Rodgers re-upped with the Packers and Carson Wentz traded to the Commanders:
Most likely options
- Re-sign Jameis Winston
- Sign Teddy Bridgewater
- Sign Mitch Trubisky
- Trade for Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
Less likely options
- Trade for Jordan Love (Packers)
- Trade for Gardner Minshew (Eagles)
- Trade for Derek Carr (Raiders)
- Trade for Deshaun Watson (Texans) or anyone else
- Start Taysom Hill or Ian Book
- Sign another FA on the board (maybe Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor?)
- Draft a rookie you plan to start
If that doesn’t seem like a particularly lucrative set of options to work from, that's because it isn't. The free agent and draft-eligible QB pool is simply not that deep in 2022. Coupled with the facts that the Saints have a win-now defense and a complex set of cap hurdles to manage and things get even more complicated, though the front office has proven more than capable of managing it.
Now let me start by saying: This take is more predictive than it is analytical. I’m not arguing the relative QB skills of Teddy and Jameis. Both are starting-caliber NFL quarterbacks. If we’re going by arm talent, Jameis wins out easily. But as we all know, arm talent and winning quarterback play don’t always go hand-in-hand. The fact is a large number of unknowns remain regarding the winning credentials of the former No. 1 overall pick. He's yet to start a playoff game, and has a career record of 33-44 as a starter. Jameis was solid in difficult circumstances in 2021, en route to a 5-2 start. He also made sure to prove he could nip his turnover woes while completing 59% of his passes for 1,170 yards and 14 TDs against just 3 interceptions.
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The second half of the 2021 season should’ve been the year we got the rest of those answers. An injury prevented that, along with any potential for the Saints' offense to be opened from the plodding attack that was featured over the first half of of the year.
But regardless of the reasons behind it, that means the Saints enter the offseason with limited information and must decide whether to commit multiple seasons under a new head coach to a quarterback they arguably still know less about than another guy on the board.
And that leads me into my first point.
QB costs can be prohibitive
Bringing in a proven commodity at quarterback is expensive. Plain and simple.
For the Broncos to bring in Russell Wilson, it cost two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick and players picked in the first and second rounds of 2019 (Noah Fant and Drew Lock), along with another quality player (Shelby Harris). For reference, the Saints' top two picks from 2019 were Erik McCoy and CJ Gardner-Johnson.
For the Packers to retain Aaron Rodgers, they had to back up the Brinks truck with a 4-year, $200 million deal.
And that high price point is not exclusively for the future first-ballot Hall of Famers. Look what the Vikings had to pony up to sign Kirk Cousins in 2018 (3 years, $84 million). Look at what the Panthers had to pony up to sign Teddy Bridgewater in 2020 (3 years, $63 million).
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Being a top QB name in a free agent class is a lucrative thing to be, and that’s what Jameis Winston is right now despite his knee injury. Even if he's the Saints' top target, that doesn't mean they'll be able to get him back if the market for his services explodes.
The Saints seem at least passively aware of that fact, based on what Saints GM Mickey Loomis said of Winston last week while at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine.
"Jameis is certainly an option for us, and hopefully we’re an option for him as well," the GM said. "We’ll go through the process here and see what happens.”
Loomis wasn't asked specifically about Winston, but he made sure to mention his name. He's on their radar, but he's high on other teams' as well. It was also an opportunity for Loomis to name Taysom Hill and Ian Book as contenders. That didn't happen. It sounded more like a sales pitch than a plan.
His former coach Sean Payton had a similar take in an interview earlier this week.
“I definitely think he’s going to have some really good options, and I definitely think that he’ll be healthy in time," Payton said on WFAN-105.7 in Baltimore. "But when teams get a chance to see what was the first pick in the draft not too long ago, a guy that right away came to a different club and then made that impact, I think that’s going to serve him well.”
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And that's likely the case because teams like the Steelers, and now the Colts and Seahawks have ample cap space and a clear need for an established name at the most important position on the field. The Bucs could even make a run as a redemption landing spot following Tom Brady's retirement, bringing back their former No. 1 overall pick. There had been reports that Washington, which made a hefty offer in the Wilson sweepstakes but got rebuffed, was ready to kick the tires on Winston as the future quarterback for the rechristened franchise. They opted instead to trade for Carson Wentz after his lone season with Indy.
The Saints, meanwhile, sit $20-plus million over the salary cap after a handful of restructures. While the panic surrounding their financial state is overblown nationally and the team retains more than enough planned restructures to clear the space necessary to re-sign Winston, don’t kid yourself into thinking the financials of such a deal wouldn’t be impacted by the current state of the cap.
This team is also working to sign safety Marcus Williams to a new deal and has heavy incentive to retain its elite defense under a head coach in Dennis Allen who still plans to call defensive plays as the former DC. They have decisions to make on key free agents like LT Terron Armstead, LB Kwon Alexander and several others. The team must also prioritize pass-catchers to help out whatever QB starts in 2022.
Would it make sense to spend at the top of the Winston market if it costs you the ability to retain, for example, Williams because you simply can’t make a competitive offer? What if it costs you the chance to sign a high-level pass-catcher like Juju Smith-Schuster or Allen Robinson? I’d argue: No, it would not.
In contrast, the market around Bridgewater appears to have largely dried up. It’s done so for reasons that likely won’t and objectively shouldn’t concern the Saints. Why? They had two full seasons to learn exactly what they needed to learn about him as a player. The only thing that’s changed is they now have the ability to get him back at a much more cap-friendly rate than the $21 million per year he was drawn out of town for 2 years ago.
So if Jameis is priced out as an option, which I believe he's likely to be, the question for Bridgewater isn't about why, it's: Why not now?
The Saints wanted Bridgewater as the future QB … in 2019
It really is that simple. He was signed as the most expensive backup in the NFL not because the Saints desperately wanted premium depth, they saw him as the quarterback of the future.
So why did he leave? Well, it’s pretty simple – Drew Brees didn’t. The Saints were like many a team that’s had to navigate the final years of an aging legend’s career. Brees legitimately considered retirement every offseason since the 2017 season, he said so himself. The Saints opted not to go the route chosen by the Patriots with Tom Brady and allow a legendary quarterback to go win a Super Bowl with another team. That decision cost them Bridgewater.
Of course, there was no Saints title in 2020 – but it was closer than many probably believe. With a healthy Michael Thomas, with a quarterback not having to recover from cracked ribs and a collapsed lung, heck, even with a healthy Taysom Hill and Deonte Harris there’s a real chance that squad at the very least makes it to the NFC Championship, but I digress.
The most important thing to this column happened before Brees' final season: The Panthers dropped a bag in Teddy’s lap, and he justifiably took it. The Dolphins had attempted to do the same thing a year earlier to be the starter in Miami. Teddy turned it down knowing full-well he’d be backing up Brees.
It was a decision that hinted at a future starting job for the journeyman, but the biggest difference from the 2018 season was an injury suffered by Brees in Week 2 of 2019 that allowed Teddy five starts to showcase his abilities as the starting quarterback. By the end his name was being chanted from the rafters and the Saints turned what could've been a calamity and lost season into a 5-0 record that set up another playoff run.
And while Bridgewater’s last two seasons have left much to be desired with a pair of franchises that seemed rudderless on offense around him, what’s really changed to turn that original Saints plan into dust now that it actually can become reality? I'd argue: nothing.
A known commodity
Loomis offered some more insight at the Combine into the ongoing search for the next starting QB. He indicated that it’d be difficult for the Saints to hone in on any particular QB in the draft given their slot at No. 18. It’s just difficult to know who will be there. When you factor in that it's a relatively weak crop of QBs compared to other drafts, that leaves an unlikely recipe for the Saints to go the rookie starter route. It's a path that the Patriots took to the playoffs in 2021 with a QB in Mac Jones, who many analysts pegged as a potentially perfect fit for the Saints.
Of course, the Saints could opt to trade up for their target, but as Loomis explains, that often proves difficult to impossible.
"It’s expensive in terms of the draft capital you have to give up," he said. "So it’s unrealistic, typically. It can happen, it’s not impossible, but it’s pretty difficult."
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I wouldn’t rule out the Saints drafting a young QB if one catches their eye, but it won’t be done with the plan of making him the Day 1 starter. Could he win the job and make the veteran plan expendable (think Wilson over Matt Flynn back in 2012 or even Jones over Cam Newton in 2021)? Certainly, and the team wouldn't complain if a drafted rookie -- or even Ian Book -- blew the doors off a veteran to earn the starting job. It's just not the plan with which you'll enter training camp.
And if you have to bring somebody in with Jameis out of your price range, why not somebody you know and trust?
Above I asked the question of what’s changed. The obvious answer is Sean Payton is no longer the head coach – but the Saints have made it clear through the hires around DA that they place a high value continuity. Pete Carmichael is still the OC. Ronald Curry is the QB coach. Both know Teddy Bridgewater just as well as they know Jameis Winston. And Bridgewater has another feather in his cap: He’s proven himself alongside Michael Thomas, who is expected to be a key piece of the Saints’ returning offense, along with likely some additions to the WR room.
Due to injuries, Winston has just a half of work with Michael Thomas (vs the 49ers) to reference, during which the pair didn’t connect on a pass. During Bridgewater’s five-game run as the starter in 2019, the pair connected at an elite clip with averages of 8 catches, 110 yards and .6 TDs per game. One of that duo's best games, fittingly, came against a Bucs team with Winston starting on the opposing side. Bridgewater completed 76% of his passes for 314 yards and four TDs. Thomas caught 8 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown with the Saints winning 34-17. If you’re looking for a value add at quarterback, bringing in a guy with a demonstrated ability to work with your all-world pass-catcher isn’t the worst place to start.
Again, this is less analytical than it is predictive, but if you’re comfortable with the guy and he’s proven he can win in this system, it’s not exactly a difficult case to make.
So, wait, why now?
If you asked his offensive coaches, they’d tell you one of Bridgewater’s greatest traits is his ability to be himself. He’s not trying to be the next Brees. He’s just Teddy. And for a team that must find a post-Payton and Brees identity, that’s far from nothing.
Winston was asked to adapt his game to the Saints' risk-averse gameplan last season while working to shed the turnover-prone tag that has dogged him throughout his NFL career. He worked hard, he did the job well, but it was still a work in progress. A good example came in Week 3, when he lobbed a ball to the back of the end zone as he was falling to the ground in the grasp of a defender. The ball found its way into the arms of Marquez Callaway for a thrilling touchdown.
It was a moment that ended in elation, but it was also one that was met with frustration on the sideline when Winston explained to an irate Payton that it was “God’s plan.” Apparently God was rooting for the Saints that day, but it wasn’t the explanation his coach wanted to hear, and he let his QB know it.
But in the end, that’s Jameis. He’s a gunslinger, he’s a risk-taker, he’s a guy that makes things happen even if he's not always taking the safest route to get there. You have to let him be that guy if you want to build your offense around Jameis Winston. If you don’t plan to do that, that’s not the guy you overspend to lock up as your starting QB of the future.
LAGNIAPPE: At the end of the day, it never hurts to have a glowing relationship with the city and locker room when a team is weighing its future starting quarterback. Payton might not be in the building any longer, but that’s all the more reason you bring back a brain that spent years learning from a legendary coach, and more importantly Brees. If Winston falls into your lap at a non-prohibitive cost, or the 49ers' asking price for Garoppolo comes in far lower than it should be expected to, who knows? But Jameis is at the top of the QB market. If the Saints have to hamstring themselves financially to bring him back, that feels like a tough sell.
The Saints are also a team that appreciates a good return arc. This is the same franchise that brought back players like Malcolm Jenkins, Patrick Robinson, Ben Watson and most recently Kenny Stills and Mark Ingram after stints elsewhere around the league. They clearly have no issue going that route.
There’s also a good chance Bridgewater is highly motivated to return to the team that always wanted him – at least from 2018 on. He got his payday and likely learned his lesson when it comes to diving into the free agent pool in a situation that wasn’t set up for him to thrive. It also won’t eliminate options when it comes to adding a QB of the future, should a Teddy return not pan out the way the team and fans would hope. But the man’s name was chanted from the rafters for good reason, his dance videos went viral for good reason, he wrote a kids book for a good reason (although I'm not entirely sure what it is).
And I think the Saints will bring Teddy Two Gloves back as their starting quarterback, at least in part for the reasons I laid out in the missive above.
Can the water go back under the bridge again? We might get a chance to find out in 2022.