The Oakland Athleticals have been waiting for their breakout year for nearly forever, it seems, and as they head to megaslumping Arlington to play megaslumping Texas, they are playing as well as they ever have, and are on a pace to be the second most successful team in franchise history. So long ago, in fact, that Connie Mack, the original owner and longtime manager, was only 69 years old at the time, lived another 25 years after that, and has been dead for 64 years since.
Of course, all these on-pace-to debates die quickly, as they should. Nothing ever stays the same, everything is a race to the mean, and whether you are spectacular good or spectacularly bad, you don't stay that way in baseball. You eventually become less of each.
But these A's feel like what they're doing is sustainable, even championable. Their schedule, already puffy and cheerful from all those AL West bottom feeders (including Texas, of course), has only nine more games against teams with winning records (the Dodgers, Padres and Astros), and the rest of the potential playoff field is, well, more modest than it has ever been. The Yankees, who are putatively the best team, have been savaged by injuries, the Twins are winning despite getting reliable daily offense from only designated hitter Nelson Cruz, the Indians have only pitchers, the Rays have demonstrably and almost deliberately mediocre pitching, the White Sox have lots of hitting and one pitcher, nd we needn't get involved with the Orioles or Blue Jays.
That leaves the Astros, Public Enemy No. 373 given all the crap that has happened since they were given the golden parachute for trashcanning their way to the 2017 World Series. They have done yeoman's work, in that their work could have been done by yeomen. They have been injured and ordinary, their pitching deeply misses Gerrit Cole and their bullpen misses everything. They are barely above .500 on muscle memory and a soft schedule, and just got swept one of thew three West teams that don't at least intermittently suck, the Padres.
Now the A's are not without their holes. Second base has been a vexing issue throughout, and shortstop Marcus Semien has been very unlike the 2019 model. The starters have been more promise than delivery, and their defense has been closer to league average than it should be. They are, in short, not a lock for this. If you had to bet (and of course you do), you'd say with confidence that the only team with better across-the-board performances and fewer holes is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They've even fixed their bullpen, and if that's the case we probably needn't go on. Giants fans can root for Oakland all they want, but the smart money will be going the other way.
But bullpens can get hinky in the worst possible moments, and this has been by and large a very ordinary year for offense, demonstrably worse than last year. Lots of teams are doubleheader-choked, which will matter come the postseason, and next Monday's trade deadline promises to be phenomenally meh. The A's recent postseason history is irrelevant, since there won't be the one-game win-or-golf format, and presuming they hold serve in the final 30, they will host all the games in the best-of-three first round. They won't have bad luck or a hot opener or a bad bullpen to blame, because they'll either win or lose twice on the merits. The second-round matchups figure to be more difficult but as best-of-sevens, the Oakland bullpen has a chance to show its value over a full series and at some point the defense and the rest of the lineup will be clkoser to all-league than league-average.
In sum, the A's are very good, again, but they can better, which they haven't been in recent vintages. That's worth noting in a truncated year — the A's can be better, and other than the Yankees and, yes, the Astros, it isn't likely anyone else in the American League can be.