The end of March – almost all the way through free agency in the NFL, and a month away from the NFL Draft. It’s been a bonkers offseason already, with stars flying around the league in trades. And still more will change before all the roster dust settles.
It really has been crazy:
- Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders last Thursday
- Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns on Friday
- Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts on Monday
- Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins on Wednesday
Any single one of those trades alone makes for an interesting week of dialogue, but that all happened in less than one week.
In fantasy football, particularly in year-round dynasty and keeper leagues, there has been a greater necessity to keep up with all the movement. Doing so is the thing you sign up for when you play dynasty; it’s the whole point, to be able to manage a team during the offseason. But this year, it’s maybe been hard to keep up.
Every player’s situation changes, at least, a little when they join a new team, but not always do those situations change dramatically.
I’d put Adams in that category. Yes, he and Aaron Rodgers made for a tremendous connection that was about as reliable as any in fantasy football. Adams was a “target hog” for Green Bay, and he was a favorite red-zone option for the Packers. A fantasy superstar who last year would go in the middle of first rounds.
Different team, quarterback, system, everything now for Adams in Las Vegas. He’s not more valuable in fantasy than he was in Green Bay, but I see him as almost as valuable.
We know not to assume that NFL teams always will do competent things. But the investment the Raiders made in Adams, both in terms of draft picks in the trade and his contract, make you want to assume Las Vegas will get him the ball. Same goes for Hill in Miami.
If you’re not going to use the heck out of them, why make those massive commitments?
Dynasty players have to calculate the player’s age in their evaluations, and Adams (29) and Hill (28) are both, probably, entering the late stages of their primes - at best. With that, younger receivers such as Cincinnati Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase and Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson are the names you see atop dynasty rankings. That’s understandable.
What about this season though? Would you rather have Adams than Chase? Or how about Hill on the Dolphins vs. Jefferson of Minnesota? The short answer of both questions, in terms of consensus opinions: It’s close.
Using DraftSharks' average draft position rankings (ADP), five receivers are going in Round 1 – the four I just mentioned and, above all of them with an ADP of 1.03, Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams.
I expect Hill to slip into Round 2, with CeeDee Lamb of Dallas Cowboys and A.J. Brown of the Tennessee Titans each moving past him in the rankings. Maybe also Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Early in Round 1 – like, very early – you almost always see a running back picked, and it’s almost always Jonathan Taylor of the Colts. Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers is probably the deserving No. 1, pick based on points per-game, but his having been injured most of the last two years takes a little of the shine off of him. (A little, not a lot.)
So, Taylor and McCaffrey, then 4-5 wide receivers… who else is going in the first round?
Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler, a point-per-reception or PPR monster, carries an ADP of 1.05. Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers always goes in Round 1 also, with the massive volume he saw last year as a rookie. Yes, new quarterback in Pittsburgh, but same offensive coordinator, and Harris as a former first round pick seems likely to get a huge workload again.
Second-year back Javonte Williams of the Denver Broncos is interesting. Fantasy players seem to love Williams, but it’s still not clear whether he’ll have Melvin Gordon back to share time with. If he doesn’t, sky’s the limit.
Tennessee’s Derrick Henry usually goes in the first round, but not always. There are always players wary about the proverbial miles on Henry’s tires. (I’m one of them.)
This is only 10 or 11 players, and we’re talking a 12-team draft here. So, who else?
It’s interesting at the end of Round 1, with a half-dozen or so viable choices. Running backs Joe Mixon of Cincinnati and D’Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions sometimes crack the first round. I mentioned the receivers, Brown and Lamb, who tend to go early in Round 2. Then there’s the venerable Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs, who continued last year to, again, dominate the tight end position.
Drafting in the middle of the pack, and especially at the end, allows you some added flexibility in who you want to build your roster, and with whom. If you’re drafting up top, you’re almost always locking in that presumed elite running back.
So much has happened this offseason that it feels, to me, like we’re at the point where we want to take stock.
Thing is though, there’s still more to come.
