Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - Maybe now, at last, with the 2022 NFL Draft having wrapped up last weekend, after an incredible two months of player movement around the league, football news will take a drink of water and relax.
Back on March 8, Russell Wilson was traded to the Denver Broncos. A week later, the Green Bay Packers sent Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. One week more, and Tyreek Hill was headed to the Miami Dolphins.
Three huge developments that helped to make this offseason, perhaps, the most exciting and unpredictable ever.
The draft came along and continued to push the tempo, with A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown being traded for mid-first-round picks. Perhaps ironically, with all the big-name receivers changing teams that one who’s been especially public about wanting a move, Deebo Samuel, has stayed put in San Francisco with the 49ers.
Maybe we’re not done yet.
Naturally, this year’s player movement has shaken up early fantasy football drafts and rankings.
I’ve been drafting regularly since the Super Bowl ended, in online best-ball leagues and tournaments, hoping to have my knowledge and information earn me an edge. (That’s the thing: It’s not “too early” to draft when you don’t know who’s going where in the NFL Draft, or whether certain players will be traded. Everyone has access to the same information in early drafts like that, and you do the best with it that you can.)
I’m up around 20 best-ball drafts so far in 2022, ranging from small-entry fee leagues to pricier teams entered in larger tournaments. All of them are fun to look back on now post-NFL Draft, because inevitably any team you drafted previous to or during all that player movement has a player or players whose value has since shifted.
I found one particular draft where it so happens that most of my early picks have been affected by all these changes. It’s a draft from March 21 at a site called playffwc.com, hosted by avid player and full-time Fantasy analyst Billy Muzio. Billy invited me and some other experts to take part in a live 24-round best-ball draft, which he broadcast to Twitter and YouTube. Suffice it to say, the heart of my team looks very different than it did the night of that draft.
I picked 10th and led off with running back Javonte Williams of Denver. At that time, Melvin Gordon had not re-signed with the Broncos, although it was always a reasonable possibility that he would.
Entering his second season, Williams at 1.10 was a little bit forced – especially in front of Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon – but I don’t have any other Williams shares and decided to start there. (Gordon is now back with Denver, and according to recent best-ball data from fantasymojo.com, Williams’ average draft position (ADP) of late is pick 2.02.)
I wanted to start running back-wide receiver, so I was happy at 2.03 to land A.J. Brown of the Tennes… scratch that, Philadelphia Eagles. Building teams with skill position combinations from the same NFL teams, called “stacking”, is a popular best-ball strategy, and I was pumped to fill out this draft with a Ryan Tannehill-Robert Woods-A.J. Brown stack.
Oh well! At least I have the first two still together.
If Brown’s value changes by that trade, it’s gone down, with how relatively limited Philadelphia’s passing game has been. In recent FantasyMojo data, Brown’s ADP is now 3.02.
Two picks in, and both my guys are worth a little bit less than they were when I picked them in March. Turns out that each of my first seven picks are players whose fantasy outlook is different from March in some way.
Pick 3.10: Mark Andrews - TE - Baltimore
Already the TE1 from 2021, Andrews’ target share may go up even further after Brown’s trade to the Arizona Cardinals.
Pick 4.03: Elijah Moore - WR - New York Jets
Love the player, love the Jets’ commitment to a fully mature offense, don’t love the squeeze a top-10 NFL Draft receiver (Garrett Wilson) puts on Moore. At FantasyMojo, he’s going as WR24, while I had picked him at WR19. Again, not egregious, but not ideal.
Pick 5.10: Kenneth Walker - RB - Michigan State, now Seattle Seattle
This could be a win or a loss. Seattle is a rush-minded team, but veterans Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson are still there – and both are good. I think in dynasty leagues, Walker’s stock went up with his being selected by the Seahawks, but in re-draft, I have no real confidence that he’ll get a big role as a rookie.
Pick 6.03: Lamar Jackson - QB - Baltimore Ravens
I got the pairing I wanted this night, with Andrews and Jackson (QB4). But overall, the Ravens’ passing attack looks weaker than it did a few days ago – and we are already only talking about the Ravens’ passing attack. I did draft Baltimore receiver Rashod Bateman at pick 7.10, so maybe I come out overall ahead here with Brown being traded.
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Like I said, any draft completed before this crazy NFL offseason got rolling should look a little strange in retrospect. Many of these traded receivers seem slightly less valuable, including and perhaps most notably Hill and Adams, than they were on their old teams.
I do find early drafting fun though, as much damage as can happen with player movement (Michael Carter with the Jets picking Breece Hall, for example).
Here's a link to this board if you’d like to see it: https://playffwc.com/football/leagueF1006001/index.php?page=draftboard&xconf=1
