It makes sense that recent changes to NFL offenses have extended to fantasy football. Increases to passing offenses have made many more wide receivers viable, sometimes as many as four per-team. Quarterback point production, while still often clustered to a point that makes waiting to draft the position preferable to many, has jumped up in turn. And, perhaps most dramatically, the proliferation of running quarterbacks has made the prototypical “pocket passer” relatively less desirable.
If you don’t expect, at least, a decent rushing floor from the top quarterback on your board, my advice is to draft someone else.
But one truism hasn’t changed much at all: the massive importance and value of a top running back.
That, plus the limited supply of running backs expected to dominate their team’s workload at the position, leads to drafts where running backs are sometimes 10 or more of the typical 12 first round picks. This was true in the summer of 2020, and it’s true again this year.
Contrarian strategies are always worth considering in fantasy football, but to skip over running backs in the first round or two is done at your own peril. The value of it lies in the strategy’s uniqueness. But ultimately, you’re likely to need big-time production at running back to win your league, and if you wait on the position, you’ll need to hole out from the fairway on a back not projected to play as much.
Preferences lie among the top-10. Your rankings probably look different than mine, but here’s my order for a basic 12-team, PPR (point per-reception) league:
1.) Christian McCaffrey - Carolina Panthers
He’s my No. 1, and also pretty much everyone else’s.
There’s an available argument against any player, but McCaffrey’s is the toughest. Targets are the most prized commodity in PPR leagues, and McCaffrey totaled an amazing 379 in his first three seasons.
Last year, he was hurt for most of the season, but, with a new coaching staff, was the same “CMC” in his limited action.
He is, far and away, the consensus 1.01 pick in fantasy.
2.) Dalvin Cook - Minnesota Vikings
Cook is not quite as overwhelming a choice at his spot as McCaffrey is at his, but he is the most popular choice at 1.02, and he’d be mine as well.
Minnesota has favored running its offense through Cook, and while there’s a new offensive coordinator there this year, it is the son of the old one, as Klint Kubiak takes over for father, Gary. It’s still a Mike Zimmer team, ultimately, so my money’s on Cook (if healthy, like anybody) to smash again. Cook carried 312 times in 2020, in only 14 games.
3.) Alvin Kamara - New Orleans Saints
Here is where some diversity enters in, with up to four other running backs being favored at the 1.03.
Give me Kamara, who I expect to provide a massive return even with the Saints’ change at quarterback. The argument against him is that Drew Brees’ retirement should mean an overall decline in output from New Orleans, and that either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill as Brees’ replacement seems unlikely to use Kamara as often as a receiving outlet.
My response: maybe, but still.
Kamara was the No. 1 running back in PPR leagues last year, and have put down amazing consistency as a receiver (81, 81, 81 and 83 catches in his four years). Other options for the 1.03 make me a little more nervous.
4.) Jonathan Taylor - Indianapolis Colts
After a suspiciously slow first half of his rookie season, Taylor “blew up” in his last six games with an average of 123.5 rushing yards and a total of eight touchdowns. That’ll work!
Indianapolis has a new quarterback too, in Carson Wentz, and has several decent, but unconvincing as lock-and-load receiving weapons. My prediction is that the Colts’ offense revolves around Taylor – even with Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack to potentially cut into his workload.
This will be Taylor’s age 22 season – a big reason why I’d rank him over two of the next four backs.
5.) Saquon Barkley - New York Giants
Barkley certainly is a candidate to be this year’s RB1 in PPR.
If he’s healthy, you’d expect the Giants to use him heavily. But is he? The Giants have spoken in cautious tones about his chances of being a full-go in Week 1.
This team signed a whale in free agency with receiver Kenny Golladay, and picked a wideout in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft (Kadarius Toney). With a questionable quarterback in Daniel Jones besides, I like Barkley but I think there are better options. Well, only four.
6.) Derrick Henry - Tennessee Titans
I’ve done decently in fantasy the last two years despite almost never picking Derrick Henry. He has run for – Can you capitalize numbers? Because these are in CAPS – 3,567 yards and 33 touchdowns the last two seasons.
So why have I been off Henry? His age, or mileage. There has just been so much volume.
Every time he’s about the right pick there’s someone else I trust more to provide that volume, but obviously Henry has blown away any perceived limitations. Someday that ends.
7.) Austin Ekeler - Los Angeles Chargers
Ekeler is higher for me than most.
You have here a superior PPR machine. He’s been on a 106-target pace over a 16-game season for the last two years, and that’s with Melvin Gordon there in 2019. I think everything there points up.
New coach, great-looking quarterback, no real threat to compete in the backfield… give me all the Austin Ekeler.
8.) Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas Cowboys
"Zeke" is the same five years into his career as Henry, although he is a year-and-a-half younger. Elliott will have, what they call, “helium” in fantasy drafts.
I predict: As the season gets closer, more and more players will remember him for what he was before his injury and draft him progressively earlier. (In the earlier stages of “draft season” his injury was fresher in our minds and, thus, we often fell into the second round.)
As much as I love the Dallas offense with Dak Prescott, when it comes to Elliott, I’m a no. He’s not that good. Tony Pollard is probably better.
It is a Mike McCarthy team and Elliott does get paid, so I don’t see Elliott being phased out. But in drafts, this is when I look elsewhere. Like maybe to Tyreek Hill.
9.) Cam Akers - Los Angeles Rams
I lean Akers over a few other strong candidates because of the combination of workload path and draft status.
Darrell Henderson is an interesting backup, but in 2020, Akers was picked mid-second round. For the Rams, that’s like a first round pick.
Akers had big games late last year, including two nice showings in the playoffs for a combined 221 yards and two scores. My guess is the Rams lean heavily on Akers. It should be a great offense.
10.) Nick Chubb - Cleveland Browns
Arguably the best running back in the league, and there’s a lot to like here.
I often end up conflicted about Chubb, because of the presence of Kareem Hunt. But there’s every reason to think Chubb can have another season (or more) like the last two, when his 16-game pace average was nearly 1,500 yards and 11 scores.
If this is Round 1 and I’m picking late, I’ll always take a receiver or tight end instead, and then maybe Chubb in Round 2. If the guy(s) behind me takes Chubb, I can sleep comfortably with any of Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones or rookie Najee Harris. That or roll the dice on a zero-RB strategy, which, as we said up front, is not for the faint of heart.
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How might your rankings look different? Tweet me @Schopptalk to weigh in.