Let the Madness begin! It’s estimated that between 60-million and 100-million NCAA Tournament brackets will be filled out this year. On each bracket, there are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 ways things could play out. If you want to know how to say that, it’s nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, eight hundred and fifty-four million, seven hundred and seventy-five thousand, eight hundred and eight.
Most of those brackets are going to be filled out by people who have minimal knowledge of any team that’s outside of the top ten, or so, with the exception of their local favorite. For those people, here are a few expert tips on bracket strategy.
Don’t start with the first round…instead start with your Final Four or Elite Eight teams, and work backward.
Look for “value” in the Elite Eight. Statistically, number one teams are there more than 60% of the time and number twos are around 50%. Don’t pass on a couple sleepers, either, like perhaps Saint Mary’s or Auburn.
Picking upsets is an art, but don’t marry yourself to them…on the average, tournaments see about 12 upsets each year (last year was as “wacky” as it gets, but there were still only 14 of them).
Calculate risk based on the size of the pool you are in. If there are 25-or-less players, you’ll want to be more conservative. As the pool grows, the risks can be more calculated.
If you’re going to pick an upset, your 11-seeds have a better rate of success than the 12-seeds…the 12-seeds just have more “mystique”.
Pay attention to the teams that won their conference tournaments, and avoid those teams that exited those tournaments early. We’re looking at you Creighton, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama.
If you’re going to pay attention to stats, pick the ones that truly matter: shooting, rebounds, creating turnovers, and free throws.
Put some thought into the tie-breaker total. In history of the tournament, the final game with the most total points was UNLV and Duke in 1990 (103-73 = 176). The smallest point total was Connecticut and Butler in 2011 (53-41 = 94). Check out the season averages of the two teams you pick for the final game and pick accordingly.
Since 1985, all but five tournament winners were a one, two, or three seed…and 63% of all winners were number ones. Paying attention to season stat rating scales can help when it comes to spotting a potential winner.
Spoiler alert…just about everyone is going to be picking UConn to win it all. So, you can go along with the crowd and hope your earlier round picks are enough to get you to glory…or go against the grain and hope you’re still standing should UConn end up going home early.