Mock drafts have become a year-long project. Thursday comes the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft in Cleveland, starting a three-day spectacle in which 259 names will be called. It's an event that's been anticipated since... well... the day after the 2020 draft ended. And once Sunday rolls around, you'll start seeing mock drafts for the 2022 event.
While we won't bring you such far-fetched projections, the top-10 for this year is taking shape. Here is who we think will go in the first 10 picks in this year's draft:
1) Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence: No explanation needed. The Clemson quarterback will be in Jacksonville and will start Week 1. Sorry this isn't more dramatic.
2) Jets - QB Zach Wilson: Another pick that doesn't take much prognosticating, when New York traded Sam Darnold to Carolina on April 5 it ended any drama as to what position the Jets would draft. Similar to Lawrence and Jacksonville, you haven't heard much about what Gang Green will do, because it's the worst-kept secret out there that the BYU signal caller Wilson is the choice. Now, the fact that the Jets will be drafting a QB in the first two rounds for the fifth time in 13 years (including the third top-five pick) is another story.
3) 49ers (from Houston via Miami) - QB Mac Jones: The first real question mark in the draft, San Francisco traded up to the third spot to draft a quarterback - head coach Kyle Shanahan said as much on Monday. He said the team would be happy with any of five guys, so assuming Lawrence and Wilson are two of those guys, it leaves Mac Jones, Trey Lance and Justin Fields. For some reason Fields' stock has seemingly dipped and Lance might not be "2021 starter" ready, so that leaves the Alabama quarterback.
Jones' rise has been rapid: he was assumed to be a mid-to-late round pick at the start of the year, and as late as January was a projected late first-round selection. Now all of a sudden he's looking like a sure-fire top-10 pick.
4) Falcons - TE Kyle Pitts: Although the Falcons could take a quarterback here, Matt Ryan's contractual situation (his dead-money cap hit for 2022: $40 million) means Atlanta is stuck with him for two more years. So why not give him a weapon that many consider a generational talent in Pitts. The mega-tight end from Florida is listed at 6-6 and 245 lbs, and runs a 4.4. In college he was uncoverable, and he might be from Day 1 in the NFL as well.
5) Bengals - OT Penei Sewell: As enticing as it would be to pair Joe Burrow with his former LSU teammate in Ja'Marr Chase, there's a reason many weren't surprised when last year's No. 1 pick suffered a season-ending injury. Cincinnati's offensive line was bad last year, allowing 48 sacks. They took a first step in signing Riley Reiff to a one-year deal in free agency, but the team can add to it by signing Sewell, a 6-4, 331-lb. monster from Oregon with elite athleticism who could be the franchise left tackle for the next 10 years.
6) Dolphins - WR Ja'Marr Chase: In what is expected to be a loaded receiver class, Chase will be the first wideout off the board to Miami. With Tua Tagovailoa entering his first full season under center he needs a weapon out wide to line up opposite DeVante Parker, and Chase is that guy. He has the size (6-1, 200 lbs.), the quickness and speed and the big-play ability that could instantly provide a spark to an offense that finished 15th in points and 22nd in yards last year.
7) Patriots (from Lions) - QB Justin Fields: Our first fake trade! The Lions are reportedly trying to move back in the first round and acquire more capital. The Patriots are reportedly interested in moving up from 15th. And seeing that Justin Fields is still available, Bill Belichick will pounce. For some reason the Ohio State signal caller has seen his stock drop in the last few months despite big-time college productivity. In other words, it's a perfect Belichick-ian move: pick up a piece for 50 cents on the dollar, and watch it turn to riches.
8) Ravens (from Panthers) - WR Jaylen Waddle: Back-to-back fake trades! Baltimore traded Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to Kansas City last week in exchange for a first-round pick. With two first-rounders to dangle, it could be enough to move up and grab the offensive playmaker the offense desperately needs. Meanwhile the Panthers can add two first-rounders and get value, now that they traded for a QB in Sam Darnold.
With DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle available, they'll go with the burner in Waddle, who has game-changing speed that every team covets. The least-productive passing offense needs a boost, and while they don't need to become the Chiefs, given Lamar Jackson's abilities and the team's running proficiency, another playmaker on the outside could be the lift they need.
9) Broncos - QB Trey Lance: With the top four quarterbacks off the board, it makes the decision easy for Denver: grab Trey Lance. The North Dakota State product only made 17 collegiate starts, but his athleticism and efficiency (28 touchdowns vs. zero interceptions!) are obvious. The Broncos have Drew Lock, but in 13 games last year did little to show he's the quarterback of the future. New general manager George Paton will come in and grab his guy under center, giving us five QBs off the board in the top nine picks.
10) Cowboys - CB Patrick Surtain II: The Cowboys don't need a QB - they (finally) signed Dak Prescott to a mega-deal - but the defense needs a little work. While the rush defense (31st) was worse than the pass defense (11th), they'll still grab the top cornerback off the board in Surtain. A 6-2, long-armed All-American with an All-Pro pedigree (his dad is Patrick Surtain, Sr.), the Alabama product is drawing comparisons to another Dallas first-round pick in Byron Jones. He would immediately step in as a Day 1 starter opposite Trevon Diggs.