Breaking Down UConn & Hartford's NCAA Paths

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The NCAA Tournament field is out, and for the first time since 2016 there are multiple teams from Connecticut in the bracket. There's UConn, of course, making its first appearance in the dance since that 2016 season when it lost to Kansas in the second round. And then there's Hartford, making its first ever NCAA Tournament appearance after winning the America East tournament title.

While the expectations for both programs is vastly different heading into their respective Saturday matchups, let's take a look at the immediate sub-regions of their quadrants and preview both sides' potential path to the second weekend and the Sweet 16.

#7 UConn (East Region)
#10 Maryland: The Huskies will debut Saturday at 7:10 at Mackey Arena against the 10th-seeded Terps out of the Big Ten. Maryland has more losses than any at-large team in this year's field (13), but they were fairly comfortable heading into Selection Sunday by way of four Quad 1 wins and zero Quad 3 or 4 losses. A rematch of the classic 2002 Elite 8, Maryland is led by a trio of Eric Ayala (14.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Aaron Wiggins (14.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and Donta Scott (10.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 43% 3PT) who can all lead the charge on a given night.

Offensively the Terps rely heavily on the long-ball, with 43 percent of their overall attempts coming from three-point range. Defensively they are much improved in the last half of the year, allowing 70 points in a game just three times in their final 14 games, while allowing fewer than 60 on seven occasions.

#2 Alabama: If UConn were to make it past Maryland on Saturday, their likely opponent on Monday would be Alabama. The Crimson Tide rolled through the SEC in the regular season, going 16-2 in conference play, and then backed it up by winning the SEC Tournament title in Nashville. If Maryland loves shooting threes, then 'Bama is crazy obsessive over it, leading the nation in overall attempts and makes. Nate Oats wants either threes or close twos, as he's transitioned Alabama into a title contender in just his second year.

Incredibly balanced, the Tide have four players averaging double-figure points, led by Jordan Shackelford (14.6 PPG), but their best player is only fourth in scoring. SEC Player of the Year Herb Jones does it all (11.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.8 steals) in leading Alabama to its record-matching two-seed.

#15 Iona: Though the Crimson Tide will be heavily favored in its first game, the opponent could be tricky given its experience. Rick Pitino, back in the game after his embarrassing exit from Louisville, led the Gaels to the tournament in his first year at the helm, the fifth program he's led to the dance.

Few had a more COVID-stricken regular season than Iona, who didn't play a single game between Christmas Eve and Feb. 11. Still, the Gaels won four games in four days at the MAAC Tournament, including a 55-52 quarterfinal victory over top-seeded Siena to make its fifth straight NCAA Tournament.

#16 Hartford (South Region)
#1 Baylor: The Hawks have probably the toughest draw of anyone in the Tournament. At least the 16-seed in Gonzaga's region have a play-in game (Mount St. Mary's and Appalachian State), so the winner at least gets a full NCAA Tournament win share and can say it won a postseason game. Hartford gets no such luxuries, meeting a team that enters at 22-2 and, at its peak, might be the best team in the country.

Jared Butler is a first-team All-American, averaging 17.1 points and 4.8 assists (while shooting 43 percent from three-point range), and were it not for a COVID pause in February would be in the National Player of the Year conversation. MaCio Teague (16.1 points) and Davion Mitchell (14.1 points, 55 percent from deep) are star-caliber backcourt mates for Butler, with Mitchell also being a lockdown defender. Unfortunately for John Gallagher and company, it could be a long Saturday.

#8 North Carolina: Okay, let's stretch our imaginations a touch. Baylor can't make anything, maybe Butler or Teague get into foul trouble. The Hawks double their season average and make 14 threes. They pull one of the great upsets in NCAA Tournament history and advance to the second round. Who awaits? Potentially only a powerhouse program in UNC.

The Tar Heels were firmly on the bubble before a late-season push saw them pick up quality wins over Louisville, Florida State, Duke and Virginia Tech. This isn't a national title contender by any stretch, but in scoring 75 points per game and leading the nation in rebounding margin this Heels team can bully its way to victories.

#9 Wisconsin: UNC will get Wisconsin in the 8-9 game on Saturday. The Badgers were on the fast track to be a 4-seed (or higher) after a 12-3 start, but things got dicey in the final two months of the season. They went just 4-8 the rest of the regular season, with three of those wins coming against Big Ten bottom feeders Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. In the conference tournament they nearly let a big lead slip away in a 75-74 win over the Nittany Lions, then lost to Iowa in the quarterfinals.

If Hartford were to somehow pull off the shocker over Baylor, the Badgers would be the preferred option to see in the Round of 32. Of course, at that point the Hawks would be playing with truckloads of house money, no?

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