Texas and Oklahoma started the realignment circus two months ago with an announced move to the SEC in the coming years, and the dominos are beginning to fall. A few years after eschewing expansion, the Big 12 has now opted to do it for the sake of survival, confirming last week that the league will accept BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF as new members starting in the 2023-24 year.
This obviously will have repercussions for the American. And although here in Connecticut it no longer pertains directly to UConn fans, given the Huskies' move to back to the Big East, there is obviously still interest in the conference's happenings. With the league wanting to expand, but also potentially competing with the Sun Belt to do so, here are five programs who could make the jump into the AAC.
Appalachian State: Do you want to still try and convince others that you're a "power league" (however ridiculous it was to begin with, and is even more given the departures)? If the answer is "yes" - and with Mike Aresco, that appears to be the case - then you go as hard as you can after App State. The Mountaineers are a football factory at this point. Since joining the FBS ranks in 2014 they've never had a season with fewer than seven wins, have been to six straight bowl games (record: 6-0), have averaged 10.5 wins in those six years, and won the Sun Belt four times.
If the Sun Belt expands and nabs some other teams on this list (or goes elsewhere to do so), there's a chance it surpasses the American in football, given it also boasts Coastal Carolina and Louisiana. Nabbing App State changes that perception overnight.
Georgia State: Everyone else on this list has consistently thrived on the field to justify the league extending an invite. While the Panthers aren't a disaster, they are a step below everyone else. Since joining the FBS ranks in 2013, Georgia State hasn't won more than seven games, but there are signs of progress. The team has finished above .500 in back-to-back seasons and has been to four bowl games in the last six years. In a word, they're... fine.
The real reason they'd receive an invite? The media market. The campus is in the heart of downtown Atlanta - in fact, the team plays at the old Turner Field, which was overhauled for football when the Braves left Fulton County. Nabbing a top-10 market would be a nice achievement for the league.
James Madison: The Sun Belt would probably be a better fit for the non-football sports, but as we all know realignment is almost exclusively a football decision. And should JMU choose to make the jump from the FCS level, they'd immediately compete in the American. The Dukes, North Dakota State and select others, like Appalachian State before them, are top-50 programs nationally, even being in FCS. Based in Harrisonburg, Virginia, JMU has been in the national semifinals in four of the last five years, including three years playing for a championship (they won in 2016 and lost in 2017 and 2019). There would be little to no adjustment period needed before the Dukes are at least a good American team, if not a championship-caliber one.
Liberty: Since joining the FBS ranks in 2018 the rise of the Flames has been meteoric, highlighted by a 10-1 finish in 2020 that featured a second straight bowl win and a No. 17 national ranking. If Hugh Freeze ever leaves, or when potential top-10 NFL draft pick Malik Willis does, the program might come back down to earth a bit, but right now in 2021 it would be a good addition. Not to mention, the men's basketball team has won the Atlantic Sun three years running, giving the league another competitive squad in a league that, outside of Memphis, looks a bit thin once everybody leaves.
UAB: This is probably the move that makes the most sense. The Blazers are in a top-50 media market in Birmingham, have a passionate fan base that actually saved the program after it was cut in 2014, and the on-field success is there. Since returning to action the Blazers won their first Conference-USA title and a bowl game in 2018, has been to bowls in three of the last four years and has committed to upgrading its facilities. Plus, there's already a natural rival in Memphis, who for years played in the "Battle of the Bones". Geographically, it also fits perfectly given its proximity to not only Memphis, but Tulane, SMU and USF.