With training camps underway, all 32 NFL teams and their fan bases have hopes of ending the year on February 13 in Los Angeles at Super Bowl LVI. How realistic that is for some can be debated, but in a league where parity is said to reign supreme, we'll allow preseason optimism until the realities of the regular season set in.
That being said, there are some teams with more rightfully placed hope than the rest. As preseason games begin this week, here are the five teams who are likeliest to hoist the Lombardi Trophy come season's end.
5) Los Angeles Rams: Depending on your sports book of choice, the Rams generally check in third or fourth as the team with the highest Super Bowl odds. That seems risky to us. All the pieces are there - the defense is still elite, led by the best football player in the world in Aaron Donald, and they still have high-end weapons offensively with the likes of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. And they made a big swing this summer by trading Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford, and therein lies the uncertainty.
Statistically speaking there have been few quarterbacks with better numbers since Stafford's debut in 2009. Outside of an injury-plagued 2019 he's started every game since 2011, and has averaged 4,423 yards passing per season in that span. Albeit he played with no discernable run game and often bad defenses, but his career record is 74-90-1 and he's 0-3 in the postseason. Like it or not, that's his legacy right now. Can Sean McVay and a great defense change that narrative?
4) Baltimore Ravens: After a historic 2019, the Ravens offense took a slight step backwards in 2020, but that was to be expected, frankly. Lamar Jackson still had a very good year (26 TDs to 9 INTs, 3,762 yards of total offense) even if the numbers were down from his obscene MVP season, JK Dobbins looks like he could breakout this year and Rashod Bateman was drafted in the first round to join Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown as pass-catching threats. The defense is always going to be above-average, even as injuries have decimated them at times in recent years. The big question is now that Jackson has won his first playoff game, for all of his other-worldly athleticism and talent, can he truly lead a team to a Super Bowl?
3) Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen proved a lot of doubters wrong by taking a huge leap in Year 3 as a starter, turning himself into a legitimate MVP candidate in 2021 (4,544 passing yards, 37 TDs, another 421 rushing yards with eight TDs). Now... can he do it again? There's little reason to think otherwise, given there weren't many major changes offensively. The big key is the defense, where most of the folks are back from that dominant 2019 unit. While 2020 was a hair disappointing, even a slight step forward would go a long way for a team knocking on the door to a Super Bowl.
If nothing else, the Bills shouldn't have much of an issue in the AFC East, with the other three teams likely comprised of two rookie quarterbacks and another second-year starter. So the defense could just need one great game in January... likely at Arrowhead Stadium.
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The stability the defending champs have from last year to this year is unprecedented in the modern NFL. All 22 players who started the Super Bowl in February are on the Tampa Bay roster heading into the preseason, something that's never happened before in the salary cap era. Almost by default they have to be one of the top two favorites, no?
Tom Brady turned 44 on Tuesday, and obviously he isn't what he used to be. But the GOAT is still the GOAT for a reason. He doesn't have to be Mahomes-like for 75 snaps per game, 17 times a year. He has enough weapons around him and a good enough defense where he can sit back, keep Tampa in it, then turn it on when it's truly needed. Are you really going to bet against him?
1) Kansas City Chiefs: Sure they got trounced in last year's Super Bowl, and the team to whom they lost is bringing back everybody. But it's pretty simple: when you have the best quarterback in the world, in his prime at 25, with all of his weapons available and healthy, you'll be the odds-on Super Bowl favorite. Barring some sort of injury to Patrick Mahomes, the train through the AFC (and through the rest of the NFL, frankly) goes through Kansas City. Not to say they don't have issues - their offensive line is rebuilt and should be improved, but it's unproven, and their defense is fine, not great - but Mahomes is the great equalizer.