According to new projections from the US Census Bureau, the U.S. Latino population is expected to grow from 1 in 5 Americans to 1 in 4 by the year 2060.
Currently, Hispanics account for 19.1% of the US population but are projected to make up 26.9% in less than four decades, according to the bureau.
At the same time, the population of non-Hispanic white Americans is expected to decline from 58.9% to 44.9% by 2060.
The overall population is expected to grow from 333 million today to a high of nearly 370 million in 2080. However, the growth is expected to stop, falling to 366 million in the year 2100, projections show.
The last time the Census Bureau released projections was in 2017, and the updated estimates have incorporated data on births, deaths, and international migration, which is expected to slow the pace of population growth, Census Bureau demographer Sandra Johnson stated in a news release.
“The US has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,” Johnson said. “Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future.”
Four sets of projections were released by the bureau, based on four different scenarios that could become reality in the coming years.
The four projections are referred to as the high immigration scenario; the middle series; the low immigration scenario; and the zero-immigration scenario.
In the release, the bureau shared that the middle series is the most likely to occur, and the zero-immigration series is the least likely.
However, in every one of the projections, drops in fertility and an aging population will result in there being more deaths than births in the US. This is expected to happen in 2038, in the middle series.
Because the experts are preparing for more deaths than births, immigration is expected to become the largest contributor to population growth.