Two things are true about the Tigers on the first day of May: they have lost as many games as they've won, and they're one of the best teams in the American League.
For starters, the AL should feel shame: just three teams in the league enter May with a winning record -- the Yankees, Rays and A's -- meaning the Tigers are tied for fourth at 16-16. And their +9 run differential is actually second best to the Yankees. It does feel like Detroit has played slightly better than its record, which is still tied for first in the silly A.L. Central. The race to 82-80 is on.
In their past two series, the Tigers were a Kenley Jansen blown save away from taking two of three from both the NL Central-leading Reds (20-11) and the MLB-leading Braves (22-10). Alas, bullpens matter, and Detroit's has largely disappointed through the first month of the season. The lack of swing and miss threatens to be a real problem, again. Kyle Finnegan has been as good as Will Vest has been bad.
But the rotation has largely lived up to the billing. Despite the absence of Justin Verlander (who was bombed in his lone start before hitting the injured list) and the volatility of Jack Flaherty, the Tigers are sixth in the majors in rotation ERA (3.69). Big-ticket free agent signing Framber Valdez delivered another solid outing to help Detroit salvage a win against the Braves on Thursday; Valdez had a blow-up in Minnesota last month, but has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his seven starts. The Tigers are 5-2 when he takes the mound.
Losing Casey Mize (2.90 ERA) to the injured list hurts, and the Tigers may have to survive his absence with a few bullpen games -- nothing they're not familiar with. But Mize isn't expected to be sidelined for long and Verlander is supposed to return soon.
Meanwhile, the Kevin McGonigle-led offense has been ... pretty good? The 21-year-old rookie has a legitimate MVP case a month into the year, and has surprised even Scott Harris with how seamlessly he has transitioned to the big leagues. The only shame here is that Harris didn't allow himself to be surprised at the end of last season, but we digress.
Riley Greene is a fine reflection of a team that has lowered its strikeout rate from last season, improved its walk rate and lifted its OPS. The Tigers finished last year 12th in the majors in team OPS (.730), despite their hellish September. They're sixth so far this year at .744. Their jumps in hard-hit rate and barrel rate suggests these strides are real.
While we're here, credit to Greene for following through, thus far, on his intention to be a more disciplined hitter this season. He has drastically cut down his chase rate, happily taken his walks, and done damage when he's had the chance. Better counts make a big difference. Greene ranks near the top of the league in basically all batted-ball and predictive hitting statistics as he tries to become the next young hitter to secure a long-term commitment from the Tigers.
An ugly truth about the Tigers so far: their defense has been sloppy. That's highly out of character for an A.J. Hinch-led club. The Tigers have consistently ranked near the top of the majors under Hinch in Defensive Runs Saved, including ninth last year (+36) and fifth (+50) in 2024. They're 24th this year at minus-3, and dead last in Outs Above Average (minus-15).
The loss of center fielder Parker Meadows (60-day IL) certainly has something to do with that, and the more recent losses of Zach McKinstry and Javy Baez (10-day IL, both ) have taken more athleticism off the field. But the Tigers can play crisper, cleaner defense across the board. They don't need to be dynamic to be smart.
An encouraging truth about the Tigers: they have survived probably the most difficult portion of their schedule. Detroit has already played 20 road games, tied for the most in the majors and by far the most in franchise history through April, which feels relevant for a club that's been much better at home (10-2). In other words, about a quarter of the Tigers' road schedule is behind them. They will play 13 of their next 19 games at home and zooming out further, 29 of their next 53.
The competition should lighten, too. In another schedule quirk, the Tigers have played significantly more games against the NL than the much-weaker AL, and almost all of those inter-league games came against teams that are above .500. Starting Friday night against the Rangers (15-16), the Tigers won't play a single game this month against a club that currently has a winning record. They will play a club that currently has a winning record in one of their next 15 series.
Those numbers could shift with many of their upcoming opponents at or near .500, but the point stands: the Tigers have a chance to make hay over the next several weeks.
If they're real, they will.
