The National Hurricane Center is tracking a weather system that is currently over Georgia, the could develop tropical characteristics in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
"A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days," Senior Hurricane Specialist Stacy Stewart said.
He says if that happens, it won't happen quickly.
"Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast."
Stewart says even if it does not become a tropical depression or tropical storm, the system could still generate a lot of rain.
"Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week... Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system."
The hurricane center has the chance of development through the next five days at 80 percent.
WWL TV Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum says because there is nothing in the Gulf yet, and there is no closed circulation, it is too early for the computer models to accurately predict what will happen.
"The latest runs of the forecast models (GFS and Euro) all show a low forming, but they differ in how strong it may become. As of this morning, both models now show a more westward track for the low across the Northern Gulf and move inland somewhere between Corpus Christi, TX to Western LA. However, this will likely change over next few days once the system moves into the Gulf. It is still too early to say whether or not this becomes a tropical system, but the chance is increasing," he explained.
Nussbaum has a 50% rain chance for the weekend, noting that it is just too early to know if the system will develop or if it will send rain to New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana.
"(There are) a lot of questions I just don't have answers to yet," he explained.
Will it develop? Where will it go? How strong could it get? are just some of those questions.
The computer models are historically inaccurate until and unless a system is over water and develops a closed circulation
