Usually when LSU and Alabama face off in early November, it goes a long way in determining who will win the SEC West. The Southeastern Conference has scrapped divisions so no divisional title is at stake.
Both teams have two losses, but because of the 12-team college football playoff, both schools are still alive and have a chance at a national championship.
But the loser will suffer a third loss and it’s likely a three-loss team will not make the CFP, so this has been dubbed an “elimination game.”
Here’s what to look for in Saturday night’s big matchup.
1. Jalen’s Milroe’s rushing yards
The Tigers allowed Milroe to rush for 155 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s Crimson Tide win over LSU. When you give Milroe a chance to run, Alabama’s offense is much more dynamic. In the two losses that Alabama has suffered this year Milroe has a combined 21 yards rushing.
In Alabama’s six wins, Milroe has rushed for 359 yards.
2. Can Garrett Nussmeier stay away from interceptions?
Nussmeier has thrown seven interceptions over his last four games and now has nine for the season. Alabama has only 18 sacks, but two of Nussmeier’s interceptions against Texas A&M came with no pressure on him.
This is not a dominant Alabama defense, but they do force turnovers. They’ve turned their opponents over 18 times, tied for first in the SEC and they are a plus seven in the turnover margin. The Tide are also tied for first in turnover margin.
3. Can LSU have a balanced offensive attack?
The LSU Tigers average 115 yards a game on the ground and rank 111th in rush offense. LSU has faced some of the best rush defenses in the country, Ole Miss, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas A&M.
Alabama is susceptible to the run. The Crimson Tide rank 65th in rush defense and in its last four games, Bama has allowed opponents to rush for 132 yards or more.
The Tigers will not have one of its best run blockers as Garrett Dellinger is out with an ankle injury. Redshirt freshman Paul Mubenga is expected to take his place.
4. Third down conversions
If there’s a statistic LSU is clearly outperforming Alabama, it’s third down conversions. The Tigers are first in the SEC at 49% and the Crimson Tide is tenth at 40%.
5. LSU’s corners against Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard
Alabama has one of the best freshmen in the country in Ryan Williams. The 17-year-old averages 20 yards a catch and has seven touchdowns. Germie Bernard is a bigger receiver who has 30 grabs for 463 yards and two touchdowns. Williams and Bernard are Milroe’s two main targets.
LSU cornerbacks Zy Alexander and Ashton Stamps have played well. Tonight is a big test.
A lot of the numbers in this game point to LSU winning. The Tigers are also at home, but LSU only has six wins over the Crimson Tide in Baton Rouge since 1969.
Even without Nick Saban, Alabama figures out a way to win, 31-24.
