Lots of change in the playoff picture this week with two new teams leading their divisions and a new conference leader as well.
NFC
NORTH
1) Green Bay (7-2) | 2) Chicago (5-5) | 3) Minnesota (4-5) | 4) Detroit (4-5)
OUT: NONE
Green Bay’s lead widened at the top even as the bottom teams kept pace. The Packers did just enough to slip past the Jaguars on Sunday, then sat back and watched the Vikings take down the Bears on Monday night, giving the Pack a 2 ½ game lead over Chicago. Minnesota and Detroit remain 3 games back, with Minnesota’s Week 9 win over Detroit giving them the tiebreaker for third place.
WEST
1) Arizona (6-3) | 2) Los Angeles (6-3) | 3) Seattle (6-3) | 4) San Francisco (4-6)
OUT: NONE
Arizona had the play of the day on Sunday when Kyler Murray hit DeAndre Hopkins for a 43-yard game-winner that Hop collected despite being blanketed by THREE Buffalo Bills, and it proved even more pivotal when the Rams knocked off the Seahawks.
The result is a three-way tie atop the NFC West that gets settled by divisional record. And lo and behold, it’s the Cards that rise to the top. They’re 2-0 in the division followed by the Rams at 1-1 and THEN Seattle at 1-2.
The 49ers remain 2 ½ games back after falling to the Saints.
EAST
1) Philadelphia (3-5-1) | 2) New York (3-7) | 3) Washington (2-7) | 4) Dallas (2-7)
OUT: NONE
The Giants made sure no one in the East crossed the three-win threshold this week by taking down the Eagles, while Washington lost to the Lions and Dallas sat at home on the bye week.
The NFC East, as a whole, has 10 wins this season in 10 weeks of play. So the division is averaging one win a week. With that in mind, that tie on the Eagles’ record could prove crucial if we see three teams tied at 5-11 at season’s end and Philly sitting at 5-10-1.
For now, Philadelphia holds a 1 game lead over the Giants and a 1 ½ game lead over both Washington and Dallas. Washington beat the Cowboys back in Week 7 for the tiebreaker for third-place.
SOUTH
1) New Orleans (7-2) | 2) Tampa Bay (7-3) | 3) Atlanta (3-6) | 4) Carolina (3-7)
OUT: NONE
It was a costly win for the Saints over the 49ers as Drew Brees went down with multiple cracked ribs and a collapsed lung. You have to believe New Orleans will have at least a month’s worth of games to weather with some combination of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill under center while Brees heals up. It could be the opening Tampa Bay needs, but keep in mind that the Saints went 5-0 last season with Teddy Bridgewater at QB while Brees healed from a throwing thumb injury, and the Saints’ schedule does soften up just in time for this stretch without #9.
As it stands, the Saints continue to hold a half-game lead over the Bucs but also hold the head-to-head season sweep of Tampa in their back pockets. The Bucs aren’t going away though, blowing out Carolina this week to drop the Panthers to 4 ½ games out of first.
The Falcons are in between, sitting 4 games back after their bye week.
DIVISION LEADERS
1) Green Bay (7-2) | 2) New Orleans (7-2) | 3) Arizona (6-3) | 4) Philadelphia (3-5-1)
Despite weathering an injury to Drew Brees to earn a victory over the 49ers, the Saints lost their grip on the top spot in the NFC this week. The reason? Green Bay won and Seattle lost. The Seahawks’ presence as part of a three-way tie had served to negate the Packers’ head-to-head tiebreaker over the Saints. With Seattle no longer a factor, that Week 3 win over New Orleans once again looms large for Green Bay, giving them control over the conference and dropping the Saints to #2.
Remember: only the #1 seed gets a first-round bye this year with the addition of a third wild-card team.
Seattle’s loss to the Rams wasn’t just costly for the Saints. The Seahawks lost the lead in the NFC West to Arizona, and the Cardinals sit just 1 game out of first in the NFC. The Eagles trail by 3 ½.
WILD CARDS
1) Tampa Bay (7-3) | 2) Los Angeles (6-3) | 3) Seattle (6-3) | 4) Chicago (5-5)
The Bucs keep their half-game lead over the wild-card field, with the Rams and Seahawks both right behind. From there, L.A. and Seattle are separated by the tiebreaker at the divisional level. Chicago is now 2 games back as they continue to fade.
AFTERTHOUGHTS
1) Minnesota (4-5) | 2) Detroit (4-5) | 3) San Francisco (4-6) | 4) Atlanta (3-6)
5) New York (3-7) | 6) Carolina (3-7) | 7) Washington (2-7) | 8) Dallas (2-7)
Minnesota and Detroit are separated by divisional tiebreakers.
New York holds a conference record edge over Carolina. The Giants are 3-6 in the NFC. The Panthers are 2-5.
Washington and Dallas are separated by divisional tiebreakers.
ELIMINATED
We’re still at least a couple of weeks away from knocking anyone out of the NFC wild-card picture. Yes. even the teams in the East.
AFC
NORTH
1) Pittsburgh (9-0) | 2) Baltimore (6-3) | 3) Cleveland (6-3) | 4) Cincinnati (2-6-1)
OUT: NONE
After three straight close wins, the Steelers put it all together against rival Cincinnati, who were coming off of the bye week and a win over the Titans.
Pittsburgh squashed Cincy’s hopes and dreams early, then continued to pour it on for a 26-point win and the first 9-0 start in team history. Then the Patriots did them a favor by knocking off the Ravens on Sunday night.
As it stands, the Steelers now hold a 3 game lead at the top of the North, with the Ravens and Browns BOTH sitting 3 games back. Baltimore beat Cleveland all the way back in Week 1, so they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for now. They’ll play the rematch in mid-December.
Cincinnati sits 6 ½ games back and, with seven games to play, is on the precipice of divisional elimination.
WEST
1) Kansas City (8-1) | 2) Las Vegas (6-3) | 3) Denver (3-6) | 4) Los Angeles (2-7)
OUT: NONE
With their comfortable win over the rival Broncos, and the Chiefs enjoying their bye week, Jon Gruden’s Raiders managed to close the gap a little more at the top of the West. Vegas gained a half-game on KC and now trail by just 2 games. It’s a divisional battle that could get even more interesting this week. Las Vegas already holds one win over Kansas City, and they’ll play the rematch Sunday night. If the Raiders get the sweep, it’ll certainly be a rivalry to monitor more closely.
Denver and L.A. trail by 5 and 6 games, respectively, and both could be afterthoughts as soon as next week.
EAST
1) Buffalo (7-3) | 2) Miami (6-3) | 3) New England (4-5)
OUT: New York (0-9)
Buffalo’s last-second loss to the Cardinals coupled with Miami’s big win over the Chargers and New England’s Sunday night victory over the Ravens tightened up the race in the East. The Bills hold a half-game lead over the Dolphins, and that half-game should disappear this week as Buffalo finally takes their bye week. In the Bills’ favor: They beat the Fins back in Week 2. The rematch will be the season finale in Week 17 and is currently a strong contender to be flexed to the final Sunday night game of the year.
The Patriots aren’t relinquishing their 11-year hold on the East without a fight, but they currently sit 2 ½ games out of first.
The Jets were eliminated in Week 9.
SOUTH
1) Indianapolis (6-3) | 2) Tennessee (6-3) | 3) Houston (2-7) | 4) Jacksonville (1-8)
OUT: NONE
We had a changing of the guard atop the AFC South this week after the Colts’ Thursday night win over the Titans. The outlook isn’t great for Tennessee, who got doubled up 34-17 by Indy and have now lost three of their last four to fall into a tie for first. That 5-0 start seems like a long time ago at the point, and obviously that Thursday night victory gives Indy the tiebreaker for the lead. The two will play the rematch in just two weeks.
The Texans’ loss to Cleveland dropped them to 4 games back. The Jaguars sit 5 games back after their loss to Green Bay.
DIVISION LEADERS
1) Pittsburgh (9-0) | 2) Kansas City (8-1) | 3) Buffalo (7-3) | 4) Indianapolis (6-3)
The Chiefs’ bye week allowed the Steelers to open up a full 1 game lead for the #1 seed in the AFC. KC sits 1 game back. Buffalo trails by 2 ½ games. Indianapolis bumped up into the division-leader standings this week but sit 3 games behind unbeaten Pittsburgh.
WILD CARDS
1) Las Vegas (6-3) | 2) Miami (6-3) | 3) Baltimore (6-3) | 4) Cleveland (6-3)
5) Tennessee (6-3)
FIVE teams now sit tied for the AFC’s three wild-card spots, so let’s dig into the tiebreakers. Conference record separates the Raiders and Dolphins from the rest. Las Vegas is 4-2 against AFC competition, giving them the lead. Miami comes next at 3-2 in the AFC.
The other three teams are all 4-3 in AFC play, but they share enough schedule similarities for the “common opponents” tiebreaker to kick in. (There must be a minimum of four common opponents.)
That’s because the AFC North and AFC South play each other this season. So stick with me here…
Divisional tiebreakers in the AFC North put the Ravens ahead of the Browns automatically. From there, the Ravens and Titans share four opponents: Cincinnati, Houston, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh.
Against that competition, Baltimore is 3-1, while Tennessee is 1-3.
The Titans share the exact same common opponents with the Browns. Again, Tennessee is 1-3, while Cleveland is even better than Baltimore at 4-1.
The result is that Tennessee tumbles from the #4 seed in the AFC as the leader in the South ALL the way down to #9, looking up at the seven-team playoff field.
The good news for the Titans is that there’s still time to turn things around.
They’ll play both Baltimore and Cleveland in the next three weeks with a rematch with the Colts sandwiched in between. We’ll know probably everything we need to know about the Titans’ playoff viability after that stretch.
AFTERTHOUGHTS
1) New England (4-5) | 2) Denver (3-6) | 3) Cincinnati (2-6-1) | 4) Los Angeles (2-7)
5) Houston (2-7) | 6) Jacksonville (1-8) | 7) New York (0-9)
AFC record separates the Chargers (2-4) from the Texans (2-5).
ELIMINATED
No one has been eliminated yet, but the Jets and Jags could both be as soon as next week.
GAMES TO WATCH: WEEK 11
For the second straight week, we start the NFL week off with a divisional battle for first place on Thursday night. This time around, it’s the Seahawks hosting the Cardinals for the lead in the NFC West.
The Ravens host the Titans in a game that could have huge implications for the wild-card race and Tennessee’s playoff hopes as a whole.
Green Bay travels to face Indianapolis in their first game as the NFC’s new standard-bearer. The Colts come in as newly-minted leaders in the AFC South but have no room for error if they want to keep that spot.
Sunday night offers up a great matchup with the Raiders hosting the Chiefs for their second meeting of the season. Vegas shocked KC the first time around.
As for Monday night, it'll be a game that could end up being a big decider in the wild-card race as the Buccaneers host the Rams. If neither of those teams can take their divisions, the tiebreaker that comes out of this game could prove huge.