The New Orleans Saints seemingly have everything working against them as the Lions head to town in Week 13, but as the players can and will tell you often: No one is going to feel bad for you.
Can the Saints backups step up at key positions and slow down a Lions squad led by multiple former Saints coaches, including the fiery Dan Campbell? New Orleans certainly isn't getting much credit from bettors, going off as a 4.5-point underdog at home.
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching for -- and a bit of lagniappe -- in the Saints' showdown with the Lions in Week 13.
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1. SLOW DOWN THE RUN
You're not going to necessarily be able to shut down this Lions rushing attack. They're going to get chunks. They're going to make life difficult on the defensive line. But can you stop them from completely taking over the matchup on the ground?
The Saints were unable to do that in the latter stages against the Falcons and it was as big a reason as any why a comeback attempt felt so futile.
The Lions have had at least 115 rushing yards in 7 of their 8 wins. In three of those wins they rolled up more than 200 rushing yards. They've averaged 135 rushing yards in their wins this season.
In the losses? That average dips to 108. This is a team that will stick to the run. The key is limiting the damage.
The Saints look like they could be without Cam Jordan, and they'll definitely be without Pete Werner. The good news is that this Lions rushing attack, unlike many others the Saints have faced, doesn't feature a mobile QB. The Saints won't have to worry about contain and they can go with some bulkier looks, particularly at linebacker.
If the Saints can keep Detroit's run production reasonable, and in doing so limit the play action passing game while also getting after Jared Goff, they'll have a chance in this game. If it's another 200-yard rushing day, this game won't be close.
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2. WILL RED ZONE WORK PAY OFF?
It's been talked to death to this point: The Saints can move the ball, but far too often they're unable to finish things off when they get into scoring territory.
The factors involved there are multiple and complicated, but among the most concerning comes with quarterback Derek Carr, who ranks at the bottom of the NFL when it comes to completion percentage on passes inside the 10 yard line (minimum 10 such attempts). You could chalk that up as an aberration if it was one. Carr was also at the bottom of the league in that stat a year ago.
But it is a team game, and the Saints need Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams and the run game to shoulder a bigger chunk of that load, too. It's not a particularly good sign when Tony Jones Jr. is tied with AK for the most rushing TDs by a running back (2). Taysom Hill leads the team with three. Jamaal Williams has zero and has averaged 2.9 yards per attempt.
The Saints went 0-for-5 in the red zone during a loss to the Falcons that was eminently winnable. Whether it was turnovers, penalties, poor play-calling or poor execution that caused it, the results aren't good enough.
The Saints responded this week by adding red zone work into their Thursday practice, a day typically reserved for third down. Will it pay off? The Lions should be the perfect team to get right against in that part of the field, having allowed touchdowns on 68.5% of red zone drives this season, a figure that ranks 30th in the NFL. Meanwhile the Saints have only scored TDs on just over 42% of their possessions in the red zone, which ranks 29th. Something's got to give.
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3. WHO STEPS UP AT WR?
There's still a chance Chris Olave clears concussion protocol prior to the game. He's gotten through four of the hurdles in the five-step process, the last being a return to full practice participation on Friday.
The final step, though, is being cleared by the independent neurologist, which is much more difficult to predict. His status is questionable, and the Saints will, at the very least, have to have a fully developed backup plan.
So what is it?
Dennis Allen hinted that there could be a role for Jimmy Graham this week. He's been a healthy scratch since Week 7. But even if that's the case, he's not taking on WR duties, that's going to be on someone else, and a lesser-used player at that.
I'd expect to see Marquez Callaway elevated from the practice squad this week. He knows the offense and you brought him in specifically for this purpose. I don't know how significant his role will be, but I expect him to be out there.
Beyond that it will be some combination of rookie A.T. Perry, veteran Keith Kirkwood and the versatile Lynn Bowden Jr. Those are really the only options available, unless the Saints opt to elevate Jontre Kirklin.
I expect the gameplan to be run and TE-heavy, but at the end of the day it feels like Bowden has the trust of the coaching staff. His hands are a question mark, but his athleticism is not. I expect the Saints to try to get the ball in his hands in a variety of ways, including jet sweeps and screens. Beyond that, we'll see just how much trust there is in the rookie, who had an embarrassing moment when he just failed to run a route on a third down in the red zone after thinking he had false started. No flag was thrown and the play went down as another mind-numbing trip into the red zone that didn't result in a TD.
Perry didn't log another target in the game until a final desperation drive. Hard to see that as a coincidence. Hopefully Perry was able to rebuild some of that trust throughout the week, because it'll be a struggle to move the ball all day if the Lions feel like they can cheat off the edges.
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LAGNIAPPE
We've heard the words "winning culture" a lot, and maintaining it was one of the main reasons you landed on Dennis Allen as head coach. But over the past two years we haven't seen it, particularly at home. Going into a game without several key players is a huge disadvantage, but the teams that understand how to win are the ones that will still find ways to win, regardless. If any of that still exists, you need to tap into it here, because the crowd at the Caesars Superdome will be excited, but will also be ready to boo if things get ugly. ... It looks like the connection between Carr and Juwan Johnson has been growing the past few weeks, and it sure would be a nice week to see the type of game from the athletic TE we all expected going into the season. ... I have complete faith in Paulson Adebo and Isaac Yiadom on the outsides when it comes to defending Amon-Ra St. Brown, but what happens when he shifts into the slot? With the Saints assuredly devoting extra attention to the run game in this one, how Alontae Taylor fares in that matchup will be vital. ... Isaiah Foskey is back, and with Jordan dealing with an injury, I expect he'll be called upon to step up. Can he flash some of that athleticism that made him such an intriguing prospect to the Saints in the draft? I don't know how much he'll be called upon for run downs, but he'll be getting 1-on-1 matchups and the Saints need him to deliver when he's in there.
