The New Orleans Saints are sitting pretty at 2-0, and that's a good thing, because there's some serious adversity hitting in Week 3. How they handle it out in Green Bay could shape the result.
The run game has largely been missing through two weeks, and the veteran safety net you signed in Jamaal Williams is heading to IR. Oof. One of your starting outside corners is missing. Oof. Alvin Kamara is still suspended. Oof. Marcus Maye is newly suspended. Oof.
But the games don't stop. The Saints have to figure it out. With all that in mind, here are the three biggest things I'm watching for (and some lagniappe) in the Saints' Week 3 showdown with Jordan Love and the Packers.
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1. TRIAL BY FIRE IN THE SECONDARY
Through two weeks the offense had faced adversity in the absence of Alvin Kamara. The defense had largely stayed intact and the product was back-to-back elite performances. That’s going to change in Week 3.
Marcus Maye is finally facing a suspension for an incident from back in 2021, and Paulson Adebo cropped up Friday on the injury report and he'll miss Week 3 with a hamstring injury.
We know who will be, at least primarily, replacing Maye in rookie Jordan Howden. The Saints have been preparing for a potential Maye suspension and also have veterans like Lonnie Johnson Jr., Ugo Amadi and J.T. Gray who could potentially step in. Johnathan Abram has also been called up from the practice squad. There will be packages, of course, but in the end I think it’s the rookie from Minnesota who will take on the biggest challenge. So how does he handle it? The NFL was kind enough to allow him a couple games to shake off any jitters before taking on a lead role. He was primarily worked into dime packages, but saw significant action. Howden says he’s ready, and his goal is to play fast and confident. Can he do it? It’s almost certain that he gets targeted early and often. The Saints haven’t surrendered any real explosive plays to this point. Howden’s work will be key in that continuing.
As for Adebo's spot? I’d expect it to be Isaac Yiadom getting the nod. He’s already shown well this season in spot duty, batting down a pass that was intercepted by Maye in Week 1. He also has the confidence of his DC in Joe Woods, the coach who was largely responsible for the Broncos’ decision to draft Yiadom in the third round back in 2018. I’d expect Ike to be tested as well.
I think it’s too late in the week to shift Alontae Taylor outside, and in most cases you’d prefer to have just one position change than two. That said, if Yiadom struggles I think there’s a trigger to shift Alontae to the edge and have Amadi step into the slot.
However it plays out, those two positions on defense will be vital. Watch them closely.
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2. THE BACKFIELD NONE OF US SAW COMING
We all could’ve guessed Alvin Kamara was going to face a suspension at some point, and the Saints have thus far survived his absence with a pair of wins. A major hurdle in both those games, though, has been the lack of a consistent run game. It affects a lot more on offense than you might think, particularly when the defense can tee off on a shaky pass-pro unit.
One thing nobody expected was to have Tony Jones Jr. leading the backfield, considering the offseason additions of Jamaal Williams and third-round rookie Kendre Miller. But that’s what I expect to see on Sunday at Lambeau. TJJ was thrust into a major role in Week 2 and delivered with a pair of touchdowns and – most importantly – impressive work on blitz pickups. That second part is what will keep Tony on the field for the majority of the snaps, with the rookie still unproven.
That said, this team clearly likes Miller and he’s gaining confidence and understanding in the blocking schemes. If the Saints didn’t think he was ready, they’d have built in a contingency. Most likely his overall workload will be determined by how well he handles his early reps. With Williams headed to IR, Kendre will have to grow up quickly.
The issue with a player you don’t trust in pass pro is that you run the risk of tipping your hand simply by having them on the field. If all you do is run when he's in the game, advantage defense. He’s going to have to prove he can handle the job. If he can, there’s a chance he can add some pop to a rushing attack that’s felt anything but game-breaking. Miller is a dynamic athlete with power and balance. He’s a home run threat that no one would accuse Jamaal Williams or TJJ of being, even on their best days. He can also catch, despite what the stats at TCU might tell you, and he’s been improving as a route runner.
Taysom Hill will obviously be a factor in the run game, but if it’s impossible to run whenever Derek Carr is on the field the offense just gets more and more difficult to sustain. The Packers have an excellent pass rush group and scheme. You’ve got to slow them down.
I’ve been fighting with people all week in defense of the play-calling thus far (I think it’s actually been much improved for Pete Carmichael through two weeks). That’s not what’s limiting this offense. One thing that is? Defensive fronts haven’t been kept honest. That’ll obviously change when Kamara gets back. But in terms of winning in Week 3? Everything will seem a whole lot easier if there’s a groud game. That’s something I’ll be watching closely.
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3. SPECIAL SURFACES
The Saints spent time this week practicing outside, and that was at least in part to get used to playing outdoors on grass. It’s something the Saints haven’t done yet this season, playing their three preseason games in domes and their only outdoor game on turf at Bank of America Stadium.
Darren Rizzi says getting used to the surface is particularly important for the specialists, and it’s worth noting that with two rookie specialists, this will be the first time in their pro careers that they’ll be doing so.
Grupe seems rock-solid and unshakable. The Saints made that decision confidently and there’s no questioning it. The punter decision hasn’t gone quite as smoothly, with the Aussie Lou Hedley following up a solid Week 1 with a less-than-stellar Week 2. He shanked his first punt of the day to set up the Panthers in excellent field position. His final punt of the day was boomed into the end zone in prime “pin them deep” territory. Both kicks were followed by Panthers drives for points.
Don’t overreact to how his punts look. He’s not a traditional punter, and it’s not going to look as pristine as a Thomas Morstead or a Blake Gillikin. That awkwardness is actually something that plays to his advantage. The ball will flutter in the air a bit, not unlike a knuckleball, making it difficult to catch. He holds it a bit longer with a step or two to the side, which helps the coverage get downfield. He’ll kick directionally to eliminate returns entirely, and it’s all about range. With all the potential issues working against the Saints in this one, you need special teams to help gain you an edge.
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LAGNIAPPE
The Saints currently lead the NFL in pass plays of 40 yards or more (4). They’re on pace for 34 such plays this year, which would nearly triple the league-leader (Miami, 14) from last season. At some point teams will adjust, right? Watch the coverage. Are the Packers playing a two-high shell to take away the deep ball? That’ll limit their ability to take away the middle of the field like the Panthers did. It’s all part of the chess game between offense and defense. Either way, it’s nice to be the explosive offense after years of dinking and dunking. … Dennis Allen said the protection issue in Week 1 was a scheme that needed to be adjusted. He said in Week 2 the plan was fine, the execution failed. Well, that’s not exactly better. The OL has to improve. I’d like to see it start this week. … How much Taysom is enough? Dennis Allen tells me there’s no specific number of snaps or touches the team is looking for in any game, a lot of it is feel and how his plays are being defended. But there is an element of wear and tear that has to be considered. His physicality is an advantage, but it’s a double-edged sword. Taysom is in his 30s and he takes a hard hit virtually every time he touches the ball. The Saints want him for 17 games and he was on the injury report with a knee injury this week. That balance is important to strike. ... Foster Moreau is out with an ankle injury. Is this finally the week we see Jimmy Graham have a real role? If not now, when?
