It's been three months since the last time the Saints and Panthers played, and both teams have combined for four total wins since that day. Seriously.
It's been anything but a banner season in the NFC South, but New Orleans at least still has something to play for in Week 14. That will change immediately and drastically with a loss, and it'll only pick up minimally with a win. This a take-care-of-business kind of week. It's also what you might call a trap game.
With all that in mind, here are the three things I'm watching most closely (and some lagniappe) when the Saints (5-7) host the Panthers (1-11) in Week 14.
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1. IS CARR ACTUALLY HEALTHY?
If Week 14 feels like deja vu, that's because it is. If you teleport back to Week 4, we were asking similar questions all week about whether it'd be Jameis Winston or Derek Carr under center. That week it was an AC joint sprain suffered against the Packers that Derek was battling back from. In typical Carr fashion he went out and proved how tough he was by playing through it.
The only problem? Anyone watching that game could pretty clearly see the injury was, at best, limiting. The Saints only managed field goals in that game in what was probably their worst offensive effort of the season. Could it have gone differently with Jameis in there? We'll never know.
Now, 10 weeks later, we're looking at a similar scenario. This time it was a second concussion in a month that threw his status in doubt, along with a rib injury and a reaggravation of that shoulder issue stemming from a big hit in the loss to the Lions. Carr was upgraded to a full participant in Friday's practice and ultimately cleared by the independent neurologist a few hours later.
On its face, having your starting QB is objectively good news in a must-win game. But, much like in Week 4, it's about more than just getting Derek Carr, it's what version of DC are you getting? If that version is the one that showed up in the 2nd and 3rd quarters against the Lions, the Saints will be just fine.
But what if the ribs and shoulder are limiting again? With a tinderbox of a crowd that's more than ready to rain down boos if things start poorly again, there's no question his performance will be the biggest factor in how this game plays out.
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2. STOP THE RUN, PLEASE
The Saints' inability to stop the run the past two weeks has been a major topic, and for good reason.
After allowing well over 200 rushing yards in a frustrating loss to the Panthers, the Lions moved the ball at will on the ground in the first quarter, a big element in what ended up a 21-0 deficit midway through the first quarter. The Saints surrendered 67 rushing yards on the first two drives of the game, with the only run shorter than 4 yards ending up in the end zone. The Lions averaged 9.6 yards per carry on 7 runs. Absolutely brutal.
The good news? Even though the final net rushing yardage of 142 is ugly, from the Lions' third drive of the game on, the Saints allowed a total of 75 yards on 23 carries. That's an average of 3.3 yards per carry. You obviously can't erase the two drives where Detroit ran wild, but the ability to clamp down as the game went on was a major part of why the Saints were able to rally back and give themselves a chance to win. It wasn't the run game that allowed the Lions to salt away the final minutes, just like the Falcons, but it was the willingness to throw the ball on third down twice in that situation.
The Saints will have to figure out how to replace Malcolm Roach, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in that game, but there's still some reason for optimism that it can be done. And that'll be important this week.
The Panthers have been spamming their run game since the firing of Frank Reich and with some success. Over the past three games they rank 9th in the NFL with an average of 29.7 rushing attempts per game. That's a pretty clear shift from the season-long numbers, which have the Panthers ranked 24th in the NFL in that statistic with an average of 25.1 attempts per game.
If the Panthers are allowed to run the ball and protect rookie Bryce Young, they'll have a chance. If the Saints can shut it down and force the QB to hang in behind a Swiss cheese OL, big advantage New Orleans.
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CAN YOU WIN WITH STYLE?
No, style points don't actually count in the NFL. There's no rankings. There's no selection committees. The only thing that matters is wins and losses, well, at least in the standings.
Even with that being true, you'd have to be living under a rock to not appreciate the level of frustration and thinly veiled hostility toward the current iteration of this team. The only fix for that is to win, but I don't think even just a win over the lowly Panthers will be enough to pull the cord and create excitement in this fanbase. It'll take stringing multiple wins together to create that effect.
The Saints only have the ability to win one game this week. They'll worry about Week 15 when it's Week 15, and so on. But the Saints would do themselves a big favor if they can win convincingly, maybe not a 34-0 masterpiece like Week 5 against the Patriots, but something with a resemblance to that.
If nothing else it would keep the boo birds at bay, who I'm certain will be ready to go off from the opening possession, heck, maybe even the opening play. Simply scraping out a win similar to Week 9 against the Bears would probably just offer even more ammunition.
If the Saints want to go forward with any form of positivity, they have to create it for themselves.
Oh, and a loss? Eek. If you think things are ugly now...
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LAGNIAPPE
It's well past time that TE Juwan Johnson put his fingerprints on a game in a positive way. We've certainly seen the opposite. Three targets, no catches. One ball was tipped up for an interception that completely changed the game in Week 14. The guy either has to play better, or find a different combination that can get it done. ... Can the red zone efficiency continue? The Saints put on a perfect day in that department, going 4-4 against the Lions in terms of scoring touchdowns. The key was getting into the low red zone and pounding it in, where the Saints have been remarkably efficient this year (even on 2-point tries). It doesn't have to be perfect every week, but it has to look a lot closer to it than we've seen for a majority of the year. ... Taysom Hill didn't practice all week and he's questionable. If he can't go, what will this offense even look like? Genuine question. He's become such a huge part of the gameplan this season, there's no 'next man up' option. A lot has to change, though I do think you'll probably get more creative with Lynn Bowden jr., who was spotted working with the running backs at practice this week.
