The New Orleans Saints head up to Minnesota, a trip they insist doesn’t carry with it any stress-inducing memories. Fans can’t say the same.
It’s not the first trip back to U.S. Bank Stadium since the playoff moment that we won’t talk about any more than we have to. The Saints worked out those emotions in their last trip, a 30-20 Saints win in the 2018 season. But it would sure feel good to drive a Vikings team that feels pretty good about itself into the turf and not let up.
Because no matter how you look at it, this week’s matchup is a potentially huge one for the Saints. Since 2015 the Saints have made four postseason trips. In each of those they’ve had a winning streak of at least six games. A win in Week 10 would solidify the start of one of those season-defining runs. A loss would be demoralizing in several ways, particularly because it’d be coming to a quarterback that can’t possibly have a handle on the offense ... and a loss sure would sting for a while as they team heads into its bye week.
So can the Saints get the job done up in Minnesota? Here are the top three things I’m watching for – and a bit of lagniappe – in Week 10.
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1. RUSH, BUT DON'T RUSH
The Saints defense isn’t worried about sack numbers. It’s worried about win totals. But still, it seems like there’s been a bit too much “get to the QB at all costs” going on this season, particularly against quarterbacks who seem all too happy to turn that aggression into rushing yards.
The Saints allow the third-most rushing yards to opposing QBs this season. Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs is second to only Lamar Jackson in QB rushing yards. That combination doesn’t sound particularly encouraging for this Saints defense. So can they improve?
Head coach Dennis Allen has harped on the importance of rush lanes and lane integrity. It’s about multiple individual rushes combining to be an attack that doesn’t leave gaping escape lanes. But as DC Joe Woods points out, there are six gaps and in most instances three or four rushers. It’s impossible to cover every gap, but you have to be smart. Compress the pocket and make Dobbs beat you with his arm. Sacks are great, but they won’t come until the Saints defense can attack the pocket.
Another issue when it comes to pressure is game situation. It’s not a coincidence that pressure was hard to generate in games against the Texans and Jaguars where the Saints never held a lead. It wasn’t until the Saints climbed in front against Tyson Bagent and the Bears that the young Bagent hung in the pocket and the Saints took advantage. Play with a lead. Play composed. Make plays. It’s easier said than done, and it doesn’t always have to be perfect. But it sure would be nice to see a step in the right direction this week.
As Woods put it: All the quarterbacks the Saints have faced seem mobile right now. That’s just the new NFL, and it’s not changing any time soon. The defense has to adapt.
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2. ATTACK THE BLITZ
When it comes to the Vikings defense and coordinator Brian Flores, it’s not a matter of whether they’ll blitz, it’s how you handle it while the blitzes come all game long.
Not only do the Vikings send a lot of extra rushers, they’ve sent a blitz on more than 53% of their defensive snaps this season. It’s not just the highest rate in the NFL, it’s the highest rate of any team for the past four seasons.
But this is a team that also features the NFL leader in sacks in Danielle Hunter (10). They’ll blitz to create free rushers, but also to overwhelm protection so their ends can win.
It’s a big play/big loss strategy. Constant pressure can rattle QBs and force mistakes. It forces quick decisions and taxes protection. But it will also offer opportunities on the back end. There are a lot of benefits in going with a 10-year veteran over a young player. This is where the Saints need the decision to bring in Derek Carr to be a win. He has to play like the 10-year veteran he is. He needs to identify pressure and attack it. This can’t be the week he holds the ball and extends plays. It has to be the week he gets the ball into his playmakers’ hands in space and allows them to win those matchups.
Defenses rarely blitz because they want to. They blitz because they have to.
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3. RUN BIG
The last time the Saints offense really felt like it was rolling was Christmas Day in 2020. The Saints hosted the Vikings at the Caesars Superdome and won going away. Alvin Kamara wore red and green cleats and they were well worth the fine they generated, because the feet inside them pounded for 155 yards and an NFL record six rushing touchdowns. The Saints won 52-33 in a game that wasn't as close as even that score makes it seem.
Alvin has had big games since, but it’s been a while since he’s taken over in the way only he can. The 2023 offense has shown signs of breaking out, but the run game simply hasn’t pulled its weight.
What better time to fix that than against an aggressive Vikings front that will be offering some pretty inviting run looks. When you’re facing a team that loves to bring pressure, one of the best ways to slow that down is to run through it. You might see a few tackles for loss if the defense guesses right, but you can’t abandon the ground game. Keep pounding and eventually you’ll break loose. The downside of pressure is that if you get beat at the point of attack, there’s very little on the back end to bring down a back with a head of steam.
Nothing demoralized a defense faster than explosive runs. My prediction is three 20-yard plus runs for Alvin in this game. Grip it and rip it.
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LAGNIAPPE
It’s no secret that Blake Grupe has struggled over the past month. After starting his career 11-for-12, he’s now missed four of his past 11 kicks. The Saints have maintained support in the young kicker – which is the correct play at this point – but man, he’d sure do himself a lot of favors with a solid day up in MInnesota. It’s another indoor game, and I need him to be steady. If not, that’s gonna be a long two weeks to stew over a kicking game that simply isn’t consistent enough. … To stay on the specialist theme, there’s been a lot of complaints about Lou Hedley, but I can’t figure out why based on his performance the past two weeks. He’s punted 8 times. Of those kicks, 7 have landed inside the 20, four have been downed inside the 10. The average starting field position after punts over the last two weeks has been inside the 13-yard line. That’s in large part a product of punting from near midfield, but the punter isn’t going to apologize for what he’s being asked to do. As long as Hedley is being elite in those situations, I can live with it. … Michael Thomas was arrested Friday evening in Kenner. It was a bizarre situation, but he’s going to play. MT has never been a guy I’ve been worried about in terms of being distracted. If anything we might see an MT that’s more locked in that ever. I’m just curious to see how he responds. … Juwan Johnson led the Saints in receiving TDs in 2022, but it took until Week 9 this season for him to catch his first. Can he continue to build a rapport with Derek Carr? If so, that just makes the offense that much more dangerous. … Start fast, dammit. The end.
