The numbers from a four-game losing streak are rarely pretty, but when it comes to the Saints’ current skid the words “not pretty” don’t really do those numbers justice.
Normally in my gameday preparation I spend a significant amount of time watching games played by the upcoming Saints opponent. And the games I watch are typically victories by whatever team that is.
But since Dallas comes into Caesars Superdome losers of three of their last four, I decided to flip the script and just watch the tape from those three losses. They all came to teams out of the AFC West (vs Denver Broncos, at Kansas City Chiefs, vs Las Vegas Raiders). And it became clear in those three games how a team should go about trying to beat Dallas. But that’s a lot more complicated than it sounds.
All three teams ran the ball well in the first half, averaging 75 yards on the ground by halftime. All three teams scored early. Denver scored on three of its first four possessions. Kansas City scored on its first 3 possessions, and Las Vegas scored on three of its first four drives. In all three games Dallas trailed at halftime, by as few as 4 and as much as 16. Playing from behind, Dallas vacated a portion of its ground game and all three teams then put added pressure on Dak Prescott. They forced fumbles and pulled down interceptions. Even with a less efficient offense down the stretch, those teams built on their lead and eventually had enough to leave with a victory.
As you know, establishing a plan is much easier than executing one. The two ways that those teams beat Dallas are the exact two areas where the Saints have struggled during its unwanted streak.
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Running the ball early and scoring before halftime. For the Saints, the points have really come in the 4th quarter, but I’ll try and keep it apples to apples. The Saints have averaged 43 yards rushing in the first half of their last four games and most of that came against Atlanta when they moved the ball at will on the ground in the first half. And forget about Saints early possessions and scores. They have just two touchdowns total in the first halves of the past four games, with one coming after getting set up inside the 10 yard line by an Eagles turnover. And thus, they have trailed each game at halftime by as few as 7 and as much as 20.
In fairness, the output of this offense isn’t entirely on execution. Any team would have difficulty sustaining drives while starting backups at virtually every position, including the most important one. Yes, I’m talking about the quarterback. But there is some optimism heading into this date with the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football. Some offensive pieces look like they’ll be returning in the backfield, and Taysom Hill is expected to get his first start this season at quarterback, with Trevor Siemian starting all four losses since a win in relief of Jameis Winston following a season-ending knee injury in Week 8.
If nothing else, the offense should have more of a spark than we’ve seen of late. But for that spark to become a fire, this team will have to find a way to mirror the success of Denver, Kansas City, and Las Vegas.
Get out of the gate quickly. Flip the script. Beat them Cowboys.
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