It's that time again! No, not draft season, it's restructure season.
The New Orleans Saints, to the dismay of cap analysts and talking heads everywhere, have their own strategy for managing the salary cap. Whatever you want to call it, we've seen this process play out year after year and things won't be different heading into 2024. The Saints have roughly $83 million to clear to be cap complaint, and they have to do it by the start of the new league year on March 13.
So how will they get there? There are several routes they could take, but the bulk of it will be done through planned restructures to push cap hits into the future. The downside is you're tied to players, particularly aging veterans who could be declining, for longer, and that money is guaranteed. Players don't have to agree to simple restructures, and all it changes on their end is converting base salary into guaranteed bonuses. I won't bore you with the mechanics of it all, void years, etc. ... a basic understanding is more than fine for our purposes here.
I'm also not here to debate anyone on the wisest course of action, or whether a more traditional cap management playbook would be the better move. I'm just explaining how the Saints will get where they need to go.
So who are the most likely restructure candidates? Here is the list of Saints non-rookie players currently under contract in descending order by restructure potential (money that can be cleared for 2024 by reworking their deals).
All figures via OverTheCap (minimum $1M)
- QB Derek Carr: $23M
- RT Ryan Ramczyk: $11.8M
- DE Cam Jordan: $9.4M
- LB: Demario Davis: $8M
- RB Alvin Kamara: $8M
- DE Carl Granderson: $7.2M
- C Erik McCoy: $6.7M
- G Cesar Ruiz: $6.5M
- QB Taysom Hill: $6.5M
- S Tyrann Mathieu: $5.8M
- S Marcus Maye: $4.3M
- TE Juwan Johnson: $3.6M
- OL James Hurst: $3.3M
- DT Nathan Shepherd: $2.2M
- RB Jamaal Williams: $1.9M
- DT Khalen Saunders: $1.8M
- TE Foster Moreau: $1.8M
- WR Michael Thomas: $1.6M
- S J.T. Gray: $1.4M
Total restructure potential: $113.2M
Cap space to clear: $83.6M
As you can see, there are more than enough restructures on the table to get to cap compliance. The Saints have also already restructured Marshon Lattimore's deal to include an option bonus, which will be another topic to discuss down the road, and that eliminates him from the base discussion today.
The next question becomes: Who do you restructure? Not all of these decisions are built the same. Younger players whom you expect to be tied to for the foreseeable future become no-brainers. If you want to automatically trigger restructures on any player age 28 or younger, this is what that list would look like.
- DE Carl Granderson: $7.2M
- C Erik McCoy: $6.5M
- G Cesar Ruiz: $6.5M
- TE Juwan Johnson: $3.6M
- RB Jamaal Williams: $1.9M
- DT Khalen Saunders: $1.8M
- TE Foster Moreau: $1.8M
- S J.T. Gray: $1.4M
Total restructured: $30.7M
Overall total restructured: $30.7M
Left to clear: $52.9M
Those would theoretically be the easy decisions, and that leaves a very clear issue. There's still about $53 million to clear, and only players at or on the wrong side of 29 to work with. That's what makes the Derek Carr decision simple, at least for this year. There are facts and figures about how these moves will impact 2025 and beyond, but we're focused on 2024 today and the most sensible way to get where we need to be. I'm not going to get too bogged down in the mechanics beyond that. You're welcome.
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With that in mind, Derek Carr's $23M restructure is happening. Complain about it if you want, this was always the plan and the team has maintained that they are committed to the veteran QB. With that move, we now have $53M cleared through nine restructures, with only one for a player older than 28.
Total: $23M
Overall total restructured: 53.7M
Left to clear: $29.9M
The path to clearing the next $30 million is a more difficult question. You're going to balance value vs risk and there is one contract I'm not looking at as anything but a last resort, and that's Ryan Ramczyk's. He represents the second-highest restructure potential, but his balky knee has me concerned about his availability for 2024 and beyond. I'm hopeful for the best, but planning for the worst.
The next four players are also risky, but I don't think you really have a choice. This represents the most valid criticism of the Saints' cap strategy in that you end up committed to aging veterans longer than you might want to be. That said, I'm comfortable with how these players performed in 2023 and I don't see retirement coming any time soon.
- DE Cam Jordan: $9.4M
- LB Demario Davis: $8M
- QB Taysom Hill: $6.5M
- S Tyrann Mathieu: $6.5M
Total: $30.4M
Overall total restructured: $84.1M
Left to clear: 0 ($500K available)
Again, you're committing yourself to five players age 31 or older. In Davis and Jordan it's two players 34 or older, which is ancient in NFL terms when you're not talking about QBs or specialists. Still, these are all team leaders who will be counted on for more than just the production on the field. And in the case of all but Jordan, the 2023 season was impressive statistically. Again, these are risky, but I'm OK with it.
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My goal here was to clear the $83M in cap overages, and I've done that with room to spare. I also was able to do it without restructuring Ramczyk. I've also avoided a restructure for Alvin Kamara, with the 29-year-old running back approaching the point in RB careers where decisions get more difficult.
There is more work to be done, because the team still needs to sign its draft picks and address some needs in free agency, but the first step is to get cap compliant in the most sensible way possible and go from there.
The Saints also retain triggers to clear space when necessary, which includes the $19.8M between Ramczyk and Kamara. The Saints could also restructure Marcus Maye, James Hurst and Nathan Shepherd, which would represent another potential $9.8M.
The next question to answer will be cuts or trades. The Saints don't have many immediate options there, a byproduct of how they manage the cap, but it's likely you'll end up with some post-June 1 cut designations, which allow the cap hit to be spread over multiple seasons and would create some additional operating flexibility for 2024. That's most likely to be the case for a player like Mike Thomas, who will have significant bonuses triggered if his deal is not reworked.
At the end of the day: Mission success. The goal was to get to cap compliance in the most sensible way possible, and that goal was achieved. There are conversations to be had about the long-term ramifications of restructuring these deals, but that's tomorrow's problem. See you next year so we can do all of this again.