Tonight, marks the third primetime showcase for the Saints in the first five weeks of the season. That doesn’t even include the week one nationally broadcast game vs. the Buccaneers. Yes, the expectations for this team were sky high coming from nearly every corner of the NFL, including the schedule makers. Here in New Orleans, those expectations may have been even higher. As a fan base, three straight years ending in heartbreak have done nothing but fuel the thirst for a second world championship. Internally, the Saints understand the urgency to win, with their incredible core of the 2017 draft approaching contract years and their hall of fame quarterback creeping towards a career of analyzing the play of others. After three weeks, there were a lot of questions swirling around this team. Some of them were answered last week vs. Detroit, but many remain unanswered. Tonight, vs the Chargers the Saints will have another opportunity to let their play do some talking.
The Chargers have been talent rich for several seasons now, seemingly unable to escape the injury bug. This year has been no different. The loss of Derwin James Jr. and Mike Pouncey for the season, plus Chris Harris, Melvin Ingram and Austin Eckler to IR has left holes in a roster that previously had very few. This, I’m sure, is made even more frustrating by the filling of the most important hole at the quarterback position.
The Chargers came into the season with Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback. It’s not that Taylor was going to be an issue for this team, but he also wasn’t going to be the reason why they won. Taylor is more of a facilitator, a good fit for a team with as much talent as the Chargers have. You would not, however, leave many games with him at quarterback thinking, Tyrod won that game for us. His propensity for avoiding turnovers is probably as attractive to the team as his playmaking ability. I think the logic there for the Chargers is sound.
Anthony Lynn is a good football coach, who understands that when you have as much talent as the Chargers have, winning the turnover margin is as important as any stat. The issue with the logic lies in the exact situation the Chargers are currently experiencing. As that talent is depleted, the facilitator is no longer an effective signal caller. Enter Justin Herbert. The Chargers 6th overall selection in this past year’s NFL draft had been slated for a year learning from the sideline behind the steady veteran Tyrod Taylor. But an unfortunate medical accident thrust Herbert (pronounced HER-Bert) into the starting lineup just seconds before the Chargers week two matchup vs. the defending NFL champion Kansas City Chiefs. He responded by driving the Super Bowl MVP into overtime, nearly pulling off a massive upset in one of the toughest imaginable situations a young quarterback could be in. Herbert followed that 311 yard performance with a 330 yard and a 290 yard, before Lynn finally conceded the obvious… Justin Herbert would be the starter moving forward.
The Saints will be facing a dynamic playmaker tonight in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. Justin Herbert is not, and has not been, the facilitator the Chargers expected to have at the quarterback position this year. He has been an efficient and steady playmaker forcing defenses to cover the entirety of the field. That was put on display last week vs. the Buccaneers with TD passes of 53 and 72 yards. As a matter of fact, through 3 starts, Herbert has only one TD pass of less than 20 yards. This impressive ability to drive the ball down the field will challenge a Saints secondary that has struggled to defend deep throws without the illegal use of their hands. It may be less the efficiency in which Herbert throws downfield, completing just 42% of his deep passes, but simply his ability to do so that could stress the Saints secondary.
Herbert also has thrived in another situation the Saints have struggled with recently. Herbert currently ranks 4th in the NFL in play action situations. The Saints have not succeeded against the play action early this season. Both Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr rank above Herbert on play action throws, in part due to the Saints’ struggles to defend the situation. The Saints have been outstanding vs. the run in recent years, but that has not come without costs. That commitment has left the Saints susceptible to the play action game. Certainly, that has been the case this season. While the Chargers are down three starting offensive lineman, and their starting running back, it would be helpful for the Saints to shut down the Chargers’ ground game with the front seven to allow the back end to sit in advantageous coverages to defend the play action game of Herbert and the Chargers. In fact, the 53-yard TD pass to New Orleans native Tyron Johnson came off the play action game vs. Tampa Bay, the 45 bomb and longest play of the Carolina game, also came off the play action. Herbert has also been tough against pressure, holding the second-best passer rating among all QB’s, when under pressure. His 72-yard TD strike last week coming vs. an all-out blitz in Tampa.
For all this praise that has been heaped on Herbert by me, one absolute truth exists that the Saints have on their side. Young quarterbacks all have tendencies. For teams not expecting to see Herbert, or having limited film of each situation, the preparation that defenses can do to account for them is restrictive. The hours of preparation that go into a defensive game plan at this level are extensive. With each passing game and situation, defensive coordinators learn more about what a young quarterback wants to do. Taking those options away, forcing a more complex diagnosis of what is available to Herbert will lead to decision making failures. I have a tremendous amount of confidence in Dennis Allen and his ability to force Herbert into these deeper reads. Can the defense handle that complexity? That answer remains unanswered.
