Before the very important discussion of how the Saints beat the Chiefs, let’s address the elephant in the room. Drew Brees is slated to return to action today. No, I don’t think he’s coming back too soon. If you aren’t a doctor, I don’ t care if you do. There are a couple of reasons why. First, I know that the Saints have invested heavily in their training room over the past several years. It has become a truly world class facility. I have the utmost respect for Beau Lowery, the Director of Sports Medicine, and for “Chip” Bankston, the team’s lead orthopedist. I know that this decision is not theirs or Drew’s alone. It has been a collaboration of medical experts from all over who have determined Drew is cleared. I also am confident about one undeniable reality with Drew… he’s not selfish. Brees cares about the guys around him, genuinely. He knows that to say he can play only to be out of the game in one series would hurt this team, not only today, but long term. If he’s back, he’s ready, and for that I’m thankful.
Drew Brees or not, the best team in football is heading to New Orleans for this game. The Chiefs are not only the defending world champs, they also own the best record in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes is in the heart of the MVP conversation again. Travis Kelce could break the record for receiving yards by a tight end, with 2 games to play. Tyreek Hill already has a career high 16 TD’s. Yes, the Chiefs are rolling. It is incredibly difficult to repeat in the NFL. It has rarely happened in NFL history for a reason. While the Chiefs have not done that yet, they have certainly put themselves in position. They are favored, and that’s understandable, but they also haven’t played a team like the Saints yet.
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The Chiefs are powered by Patrick Mahomes. You probably didn’t need to read an article to understand that. What’s so tough about Mahomes is not what he does, but how he does it. When I asked Mickey Loomis on the GM Show this week what his favorite thing about Mahomes was when he was coming out of Texas Tech, Loomis told me it’s Mahomes’ ability to accurately deliver the ball from any angle. It’s something you see over and over again.
The pathway to slowing this offense down is to pressure Mahomes with your front 4. The problem is he is a magician at getting the ball out with defenders around him. If the Saints can find a way to squeeze the pocket around Mahomes and make him feel a ticking clock, they will give themselves a chance. If they let him escape regularly like they did to Jalen Hurts, the Chiefs will kill us with improvisation.
The matchup to watch is Cam Jordan vs. Yasir Durant the rookie out of Missouri, who filled in when Mike Remmers left last week’s game with a back injury. He gave up a sack in relief work and looked shaky throughout the contest vs. the Dolphins. When you get to these big games, you need your biggest players to play their best. Jordan has been outstanding this year in the run game, but has not been productive as he has been over the past few seasons. He needs to get healthy on the pass rush front today.
Once Mahomes is able to release the football, he has a host of weapons to get it to. His favorite target is tight end Travis Kelce. With 90 catches for 1250 yards the Cincinnati product leads the Chiefs in both catagories. Kelce has been particularly effective over the past 6 games where he has averaged 8 catches for 125 yards. He is a unique weapon at the tight end position. It’s going to be a huge matchup for the Saints. Several players will get a shot at Kelce, but it’s a tough matchup for anyone.
Chauncey Gardner Johnson has been great in coverage for the Saints this year. Malcolm Jenkins has come on after a slow start for the Black and Gold. Demario Davis has been outstanding since he arrived in New Orleans. It will take all of them to handle Kelce.
The Saints will try to find a way to double Kelce and Hill, exposing some matchups with other receivers, but you want to force the Chiefs to throw to them to beat you. I could see Dennis Allen using some 3 down looks to give himself some flexibility. With Demario Davis being as effective a pass rusher as he is, a three down or odd look with the front will give the defense a chance to use some of the pressures and games they prefer to use, while still playing coverage yet also giving them the flexibility to drop eight. I can assure you, no coverages work if the Saints don’t get to Mahomes.
The Saints are also going to have to score some points to beat the Chiefs. It’s an easier task than keeping the Chiefs from scoring. Mike Thomas was placed on IR for the second time this season, but the Saints get back their hall of fame quarterback, and Alvin Kamara is playing as well as he ever has in his career. Jared Cook continues to be a low volume target for the Saints, but leads the team in TD catches.
But it’s the guys up front that need to make the biggest impact on this game. Chris Jones is one of the top defensive tackles in the NFL, and it’s been the interior of the Saints line that has been most consistently challenged. They need to play their game of the year today. First there is the obvious challenge of having Brees back from an injury that was created and could be inflamed by being sacked. I can tell you having been in the situation that it creates a special type of anxiety and pressure. The Saints offensive line will need to channel that into focus because their effort in this game is of particular importance.
It’s not just because of Brees either. The Saints don’t just need to score points, they need to sustain long drives. There is no question that keeping the ball away from the Chiefs offense would be advantages to the Saints. The only way to really do that effectively is with a steady and consistent running game. The Saints have worked themselves up to the 7th ranked rushing attack in the NFL. It’s a weakness of the Chiefs. Kansas City comes into the game giving up the 7th most yards on the ground in the NFL. Even more advantageous, they’re 29th in yards per carry given up.
The Saints need to commit to the run early. They need to use their passing game to compliment the running game not vice versa. The Saints have plenty of talented receivers to move the ball through the air, but it’s not their strength. This group excels on the ground, and that’s what they will need to do to control this game. If the Saints can control the clock and the tempo of the game, they give themselves a good opportunity to win.
Defensively, the Saints have a challenge on their hands. No doubt about it. The Chiefs have a challenge on their hands too. The Saints are one of the few teams in the NFL that have the personnel to match up with Kansas City. There are three keys to containing the Chiefs. 1. Stop the big play. The Chiefs make a lot of plays down the field. Sixty this year over 20 yards, best number in the NFL. The Saints need to avoid the big play TDs. Force the Chiefs into the redzone and win. The Chiefs are not a great redzone offense. They have struggled down there as all their speed is neutralized.
2. Get pressure on Mahomes with your front four. Every quarterback is less effective when they’re pressured. Mahomes is no different. The issue with many of the great quarterbacks is their ability to beat dogs and blitzes. The same is true here. Mahomes has a 137.7 passer rating when blitzed. There are simply too many weapons on the field and he is too smart to hold onto the ball. To make matters worse, Mahomes gets sacked almost twice as frequently when he isn’t blitzed. Why? Because reading the pressure speeds up his clock. He knows he needs to get the ball out of his hand so that’s what he does. Without extra defenders coming, Mahomes will hold onto to the ball. So much so, that pro football focus credits Mahomes with more pressures, hits and sacks than any of his offensive linemen. Code word, he will hold on to the ball… a lot. Create the pressure with your down rushers.
3. Win the redzone. The Saints defensively have been outstanding since week 5 in the redzone. The Chiefs are ranked 20th offensively. Force the Chiefs to drive the field, and then hold them to field goals. There is an even bigger advantage for the Saints offensively. The Chief are the worst redzone defense in the NFL. The Saints must take advantage of it. Score touchdowns, hold to field goals, win the game.
Honestly, I couldn’t be more excited to watch this game. The only thing that would excite me more would be getting to host all of you inside the dome. We have reached that part of the year where every game feels like a must win. With just 3 left to play the Saints sit as the two seed, chasing the Packers, but ultimately in a familiar position. They are one of the favorites in the NFC with expectations of having an opportunity to play for a world championship. If they do, this may be a preview.