Back in the days of a 16-game schedule, NFL head coaches liked to break down the season in four equal quarters.
Deal with the first four games, then turn to the next four, then the next four – you get the picture. But when the league moved to 17 games things changed, unless you wanted to do the first 4.5 games at a time. I won’t speak for other people, but I’m not working with fractions.
All of this is to say: The next three games are very, very important to the Saints and their 2022 season hopes. I said important, not crucial, imperative, vital – Just important. A lot of that boils down to who they play, when they play them and where it’s happening.
THE GAME | Saints (1-1) at Panthers (0-2)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Sept. 25
- Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
- Betting: Carolina +2.5
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Jeff Nowak & Steve Geller, 8-10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Bobby Hebert & Kristian Garic, 10 a.m.-noon
The Saints open 2022 not only with their first three games coming against the NFC South, but with their first five against NFC teams. So, these games all played before Oct. 10 could all have significant ramifications when we’re talking about playoffs and seeding later in the year. If the Saints take care of business and win the division it won’t be as important, but it could still determine whether playoff matchups are at home, and maybe even a week off.
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The first matchup in that stretch comes against a Carolina Panthers team that’s lost nine straight games dating back to last year, the longest active losing streak in the NFL. The stories written about head coach Matt Rhule these days are less about what he might do next than whether he might keep his job long enough to do them. Even with the painful stretch, this is a Panthers team made up of very talented players. The winning combination has eluded them, falling by a combined 5 points in Weeks 1 and 2. That first loss came on a 58-yard field goal by former LSU Tiger Cade York. The next week it was former Panthers kicker Graham Gano knocking through a 56-yarder late in the 4th quarter to secure the final margin. That’s good for 0-2, but it’s just a few lucky bounces away from 2-0. Baker Mayfield, Christian McCaffrey and D.J Moore have skills and the stout defensive group will keep them in most games. So, don’t lock onto that losing streak and think this will be easy. Anything that requires, “dating back to last year,” I will call a stat of convenience more than a stat of relevance.
However Week 3 ends, it gets no easier on the travel front. The Minnesota Vikings await in London. A win over the Lions in Week 3 would have Minnesota at 2-1 with all three games coming against NFC teams. Again, do not think September, but December and January and potential tiebreakers. Frankly, I am fine with playing Minnesota in London. Beyond the NFC Championship game in 2010 and that Christmas gift in 2020, most of the memories from this series have been painful ones. It’s a pretty good rule of thumb that if a head-to-head series includes a game remembered with the word “miracle,” a neutral site is a safer option.
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The Saints will conclude that 5-game run in the NFC back at Caesars Superdome against Seattle. Who knows what Seattle’s record will be then, but it is another game in the NFC and that alone makes it important. The Saints will need to get their feet and heads back on Cajun soil as soon as possible. After their first two trips to London, both victories in 2008 and 2017, the Saints had a bye week upon returning. Not this time. That will be a challenging transition, no question. The Seahawks will be flying in from the west coast for that one, but I do not care so much about that.
So, three games, one divisional foe, one international game, and the 5th and final NFC opponent to start the season with Seattle. 4-1 is the goal, and 3-2 is the worst acceptable result. Anything worse and you’re already swimming upstream with a majority of the season left to play. It does not mean the Saints can’t accomplish all of their preseason goals, but I’d much rather swim with the current … wouldn’t you? I assure the Saints would.
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