As we inch closer and closer to Saints training camp, we're getting a clearer and clearer picture of what to expect for the 2022 season.
There is a new head coach but a stable staff around him. There are new weapons and a host of players working back from injury. There's a wide-open NFC that would make another playoff absence extra painful after the near miss of the 2021 season.
But which players have the most to prove heading into 2022? To start to answer that question, let's first set the rubric:
- I'm not talking about players that are simply question marks. Players like Jameis Winston, Wil Lutz and Alvin Kamara have big responsibilities even with hurdles ahead, but there's no question of what they can do when healthy. The biggest thing Winston needed to prove was that he could nip the turnover woes that dogged him throughout his career. He did that and led the Saints to winning football, so that saves him from this list despite the knee injury he's working back from.
- I also won't include rookies, because we have to establish what their roles will be before we know exactly what they're being asked to prove. Second-year players also land a bit lower for similar reasons.
- This list is about expectations vs the reality of what we've seen the past few years. These are players that have clearly defined roles, and the only question is whether they -- for vastly different reasons -- can step up and fill them in 2022, because their previous season was difficult and/or disappointing.
With that in mind, the first player on this list is one we know well, even if we haven't seen him in quite a while:
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1. MICHAEL THOMAS, WR
Michael ThoamsRon Chenoy, USA Today Sports
- AGE: 29
- NFL SEASONS: 6
- BIGGEST QUESTION(S): Health
The obvious argument is that MT doesn't actually need to prove anything. He caught an NFL record 149 passes in 2019, and has already shown he's an all-world receiver when healthy. But the skill level has nothing to do with this placement, it's all about health.
Just a few seasons ago it seemed that nothing could slow down the former Ohio State Buckeye. He not only paced the league in virtually every pass-catching record, he did it while always being available. He played through injuries often, sure, but it was never a question whether he'd be on the field, appearing in 63 of 64 possible games from 2016-'19.
Fast-forward to 2022 and that availability is very much a real and serious question. A severe ankle injury that was worsened by attempting to play through it cost him a majority of the 2020 season. Surgeries and setbacks cost him the entirety of 2021. It's been well over a year since Thomas been out on the practice field with the team, and those absences have continued at OTAs. Based on head coach Dennis Allen's assessment, he likely won't be on the field for next week's mandatory minicamp, either. The plan was always to aim for a training camp return.
There's been no indication of a setback, and that's a good thing. But there's also no denying that the visual of at least seeing him out and moving around during OTAs or minicamp would've been a welcome dose of positivity. Thomas offered a bit of optimism through his own channels on Tuesday, sharing a video of himself running sprints at the Saints' indoor facility with the caption "talk soon."
It's a good start, and Thomas will not only need to prove he can get healthy, but that he can stay that way throughout the season.
Once he does get on the field, it'll be a question of how closely he can resemble his dynamic self. He was a never a player that relied on speed to get open, so that should soften the return curve. It was always about physicality and precise route-running. If he can prove he's back to his old self, the Winston-led offense with Kamara, Thomas and newcomers Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave begins to look really scary. But he's a worthy inclusion on this list all the same.
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2. CESAR RUIZ, OL
Cesar RuizBill Streicher, USA Today Sports
- AGE: 22
- NFL SEASONS: 2
- BIGGEST QUESTION: Consistency
Let me start by saying that I think the unending criticism of Ruiz is a bit overblown after just two NFL seasons. Has the 2020 first-round pick been great? Of course not. Has he been costing the Saints games? That's highly debatable.
This Saints OL group played significant time without either starting tackle in 2021. Ruiz took on work at center early in the season with Erik McCoy missing multiple games and it was a rough showing. But OL groups succeed and fail together. Ruiz being the constant presence on the field during those struggles feels like it's made him the flashpoint for them, because a first-round draft pick is easier to blame than names like Calvin Throckmorton and James Hurst. The fact is the entire line struggled, an issue exacerbated by a revolving door at quarterback after the retirement of Drew Brees.
Now, there are valid criticisms to be made. There were still clear technical issues in Year 2 and he particularly struggled with stunts and outside rush technique. He allowed 31 pressures and 5 sacks in 2021, per Pro Football Focus, numbers that are far too high for an interior lineman. But on the whole I don't see Ruiz's struggles as being significantly worse than Larry Warford's in 2019, and there's no replacement-level player you're going to turn to. The fact is, players develop over time and some take more time than others. When assistant OL coach Zach Strief spoke to Ruiz's development earlier this offseason, he had this to say.
"I think Cesar's made a jump from Year 1 to Year 2. ... He needs to a bigger jump from Year 2 to Year 3. But it's not for lack of trying," Strief said, along with a reminder that he transitioned to guard from center upon entering the NFL. "The kid works his tail off every single day, wants to get better. And we saw growth, what we need is consistency."
The development curve for any rookie entering the league in 2020 was steeper without a real offseason. Workouts were also limited in 2021. The Saints brought in Doug Marrone to lead the OL group for 2022.
"So far it's my first 'normal' NFL season," Ruiz said. "So it should be fun."
We don't have to pretend a player's career is defined by his first two seasons in the NFL and the Saints won't be quitting on him heading into Year 3. The man still has all the tools to be successful. He needs to use them more effectively and turn the right side of the line into a strength, as it should be with McCoy and Ryan Ramczyk flanking him. There's nowhere to hide as a young player on the OL. If you're in the game, you're a target.
The former Michigan standout said he's worked on hand usage and other technical elements over the offseason. But a major focus has also been the mental aspect of the game, which was a particular challenge with all the absences and injuries across the OL throughout the season.
“A lot of it came down to me, too, just understanding how I play, what I do, my personality as well,” Ruiz said.
So if you're scoring at home, this list includes one player who has the unquestioned talent but the health is a mystery. And another who was the healthiest body all season along a banged-up OL, but still has to show he can compete at a level that can improve the group as a whole. Ruiz won't be getting benched out of the gate for journeyman James Hurst, who will compete for the starting LT job with rookie Trevor Penning, but this has to be the year he shows why the Saints drafted him in the first round of 2020. The runway has been used up, and Year 3 is when you either fly or get parked.
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3. MARCUS MAYE, S
- AGE: 29
- NFL SEASONS: 5
- BIGGEST QUESTIONS: Health/scheme fit
The last inclusion on this list was a bit more complicated. I waffled between names like Payton Turner and Pete Werner, but the former is a member of a stacked pass-rush group and he needs to stay healthy more than anything. Even with health, he'll likely be a rotational rusher in a group headlined by Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport. Werner had good moments as a rookie and looks in line for a step up in role alongside Demario Davis.
Newcomers Tyrann Mathieu and Jarvis Landry are stepping into key roles, but Marcus Maye is easily the biggest question mark in a secondary and defense that appears stacked across the board.
He has health questions, working back from an Achilles injury suffered last season. He has a potential suspension looming, stemming from a DUI incident. It's still a bit of a mystery how the Saints will run he and Mathieu's splits between strong and free safety, but it sounds like there'll be a good mix of both. He's got to prove the Saints were correct in letting Marcus Williams walk in the offseason, and he's got to prove he has the ability to contribute to winning football after his first 5 years with the rudderless Jets team that lolled to a record of 22-59. One of the biggest reasons Maye said he was drawn to New Orleans was the winning culture, with the Saints rolling up a record of 58-23 over that same span.
Early on he's put the right foot forward. He and Tyrann Mathieu are side-by-side in the Saints locker room, and they've started getting to know each other even while he's working to get back on the field fully. They've already debated whether LSU or Florida is the real DBU, and Maye has been out on the field for mental reps and limited work (wearing No. 6) during both of the OTA sessions to this point.
Maye is also the owner of a butt-interception highlight that rivals teammate Marshon Lattimore. It might not be a real skill to be considered in this conversation, but I still appreciate it.
Marshon Lattimore with the Butt Interception!pic.twitter.com/UVzNXUb7x2
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 24, 2017
Both Maye and Mathieu are on 3-year deals. If Maye can prove his mettle on the back end, this Saints defense can be scary-good. If not, there are few options behind him. That's why he's on this list.
