A new JMC Analytics poll shows New Orleans City Council member Helena Moreno with a staggering lead in the mayor's race, with 52 percent of respondents saying they'd vote for her. Councilman Oliver Thomas came in a distant second place, and retired judge Arthur Hunter took third place. However, one political analyst urges voters not to put too much stock in a poll this far away from election day.
In fact, Xavier University pollster Silas Lee says no one should get too emotional over the poll numbers.
"Get off the 'pollercoaster,'" Dr. Lee said. "We'll see these polls move up and down as the momentum in the campaign shifts and when people start to pay attention."
According to Lee, polls conducted now won't necessarily reflect what voter preferences will be on Election Day four months from now.
"A poll is a snapshot in time," Xavier University political analyst Silas Lee said. "Let's see what happens in August and September and where the support stands for the various candidates."
Dr. Lee says he expects that to happen after qualifying, particularly late in the summer. That's when, he says, voters will begin keeping closer tabs on the race and when the candidates will ramp up their campaign.
"People are distracted with other activities," Dr. Lee said. "Needless to say, we have hurricane season approaching, and with the start of school, people will not start paying close attention, nor will the candidates start to engage in more aggressive campaigning until after Labor Day."
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