Hurricane season is here, and chances are, you've seen someone post on social media a forecast claiming a hurricane is going to hit Louisiana in the next week or two. So should we pack up and head for the hills?
L-S-U Health climatologist Barry Keim's answer to that question was succinct: "Uh... no."
According to Keim, only one model, the Global Forecast System Model, is showing any tropical systems forming in the next 10 to 14 days. That, Keim says, is an eternity in the forecasting world.
"The GFS is notorious for coming up with what we call these ghost storms, predicting things way out into the future," Keim said. "It is showing something, but we're not putting a whole lot of stock in it. "The European Model does not spin that same storm up."
Keim says it's something forecasters will keep an eye on, but it's nothing Louisiana residents should worry about.
"Obviously, it's something we'll keep an eye on, but right now, I say, 'no,' it's nothing at all to be concerned about at this point," Keim said.
Keim warns weather watchers to be mindful of where they're getting their forecasts.
"Beware of this clickbait material because a lot of people do this and make a lot of money on it," Keim said. "Just be smart about it. The official authority is the National Hurricane Center. Keep a watch on what they're saying because the experts are monitoring this hour-by-hour, probably minute-by-minute, actually. You can look at the GFS and European models to see what they're saying, but just realize (that) they're just models. They're useful, but they're wrong quite frequently, especially as you start going out beyond a week or 10 days. When you're looking at forecasts two weeks out, it's practically useless."