Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry says he's open to President Donald Trump's idea of sending National Guard troops to New Orleans to quell crime in the city, but one analyst says recent data suggest that Trump's plan is an overreaction to what's really happening in the Crescent City.
AH Datalytics founder Jeff Asher told WWL's Tommy Tucker that although the city's murder rate is still high for cities of its size, that rate is trending downward. Asher says despite this data, perceptions of the city's crime situation drive residents' and politicians' reactions.
"You see this in surveys going back over the last 20 years of people saying that crime has risen in America over the past year, and more than half the time in the last 20 years that we've taken these surveys, it's fallen," Asher said. "The trend, which is what the policy should be based on, is unequivocally down.
Asher says that crime rate's decrease is the result of of city, state, and federal efforts, including investments in community violence programs, investments in neighborhood and social center constuction, and the creation of State Police Troop NOLA. Asher warns that basing crime-fighting policy on perceptions and not factual data risks undoing the progress city and state leaders have made in driving down crime in New Orleans.
"If the data suggests that things are getting better, then all it can do is interrupt that progress," Asher said. "We're seeing very positive trends, and my perspective, I would hate to interrupt those positive trends just to score political points."
According to Asher, deploying the National Guard to patrol New Orleans would stop the gains local officials have made in driving down crime.
"It doesn't necessarily make a lot of sense," Asher said. "I don't think it necessarily fits the data."
However, Asher says city and state leaders need to do a better job of trumpeting New Orleans's recent successes so everyone will know the city is safer than it used to be.
"We should work to change the perception and say when things are getting better they're getting better, this is why think they're getting better, (and) these are the things we still need to do," Asher said. "The problem is not solved, but they're getting better."
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