Did Louisiana’s mask mandate impact how the state experienced the Delta surge compared to some of our mandate-less neighbors? WWL spoke with the Public Affairs Research Council about how Louisiana experienced the Delta surge compared to Texas, Mississippi, Florida, and Arkansas.
The answer? Well, it’s complicated.
“There’s absolutely fuel for both sides to make their argument, neither one could be conclusive,” said Public Affairs Research Council incoming President Dr. Steven Procopio.
Procopio crunched CDC numbers, looking at the rolling seven-day average of new COVID cases per 100,000, and found Louisiana had the highest Delta peak of the five states analyzed.
“We had 122 cases per 100,000 people, that was higher than every other place. The closest was Mississippi at 119,” said Procopio. “We had the highest peak out of the surge, that definitely stands out to me.”
But despite that top-of-the-pack peak, Procopio warns there are just too many variables to determine, at the moment, how the mandate impacted the Delta surge in Louisiana.
“The issue is there are so many different factors, things that will overwhelm anything else, except for maybe the vaccination rate,” said Procopio. “Unfortunately you also just have luck. Sometimes these things, there are interactions that can’t immediately be controlled or explained.”
One argument in favor of the mandate can be seen by looking at the charts provided by PAR. The Governor’s indoor mask mandate was issued August 2nd, and roughly two weeks later new cases began to drop, and drop rapidly. A counter-argument is that that same pattern of a rapidly ballooning surge followed by a quick dropoff a few weeks later was highly characteristic of Delta in other states and countries.
