We are less than a month away from early voting beginning in the New Orleans mayor's race, and now that we're past Labor Day, the campaign will soon ramp up.
According to two analysts, the race is still the front-runner's to lose.
"She's certainly within the margin of error to win the office in the primary," University of New Orleans political science professor Ed Chervenak said.
The latest polling shows city council member Helena Moreno holding on to a 47-percent lead in the mayor's race, with state Senator Royce Duplessis and city councilman Oliver Thomas running second and third, respectively, within a few points of each other. Despite this, Chervenak says he doesn't expect Moreno to sit back and coast to election day.
"I don't think she's going to sit back on her laurels with this lead. She's going to be aggressive and energetic up until October 11," Chervenak said.
Pollster Ron Faucheux says Thomas and Moreno haven't done enough to pull voters from frontrunner Helena Moreno or to differentiate themselves from voters.
"Neither Oliver Thomas nor Royce Duplessis, in my opinion, anyway, have fully defined themselves in ways that would be most helpful to their candidacies," Faucheux said. "They have a double-edged sword here, both presenting themselves and attacking the frontrunner."
According to Faucheux, Thomas and Duplessis lag behind Moreno in fundraising, which puts them at a huge disadvantage. Faucheux says Thomas and Duplessis need to convince voters and donors quickly about their ability to lead the city and their ability to win the race.
"Moreno has raised more money than both of them combined, so they have to be a little more careful how they spend their money than she does," Faucheux said. "If people think a candidate can win, they put money there. They need to both make progress in their campaign and also show potential givers that they have a real chance to get elected."
Chervenak believes Thomas and Duplessis need to focus on drawing enough voters to make the runoff.
"The goal is to come in second if Moreno is held under 50 percent-plus-one," Chervenak said.
Early voting begins on September 27. Election Day is October 11.