Early voting for municipal races in the New Orleans area runs until October 4th in some areas, and the early voting turnout so far is quite high. Does that portend a huge turnout for the regular election? John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling says it’s not necessarily a direct correlation.
“There are two main points worth mentioning here,” Couvillon points out.
“The first is that it is true that early voting numbers are up from early voting numbers in 2021 and 2017... on the first day of 2017, you had roughly 4,200 early votes. In 2021, there were about 7,000 early votes. As of Saturday night, there were already 10,500. Does that mean that there’ll necessarily be a higher turnout in this election? I’m not yet convinced of that because it’s only been one day," Couvillon explains.
"But, in recent years in Orleans Parish, the early voting sites have increased to four from two. From what I’ve seen in early voting in multiple parishes, when a parish increases the number of voting sites available, it increases the capacity. In other words, the old ‘If you build it, they will come’ mantra holds true,” Couvillon goes on to explain.
“What’s also interesting when talking about whether Moreno can win the election outright is that, from 2017 to 2021, the black percentage of the early vote was 67%-66% after the first day. It was only 59% after Saturday night. When you have a diminution of black votes like that, it suggests to me lower enthusiasm. That would benefit the candidate who pays more attention to building a coalition on both sides of the racial aisle. Essentially, you can’t win exclusively off the black or the white vote when it’s an all Democratic race, which it is,” Couvillon notes.
Ultimately, while Couvillon expects voter turnout in this year’s municipal elections to be higher than in years past, he doesn’t see data that indicates turnout to be record-smashing. Many of the more enthusiastic voters tend to vote early, and in an election where many are hopeful for change, they’ve been using that privilege.
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