The 2026 hurricane forecast from Colorado State University's Climate Research team predicts 13 total named storms, with six of them becoming hurricanes, an two hurricanes reaching Category 3 status or greater.
That below the statistical average between of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The forecast is moderated by the potential for a "super" El Niño to form by the busiest part of the season.
LSU Health Climatologist Barry Keim says a "super" El Niño means a Pacific ocean warm-water current that's two to three degrees warmer than normal.
"And that just puts everything on steroids, so all the things that you normally expect in an El Niño, well, expect it to be even more intense," he said.
Keim says in the three prior super-El Niños on record, we had hurricane season with 11, eight, and five named storms.
"Super El Niños clearly knock down the number of tropical systems, so that would be welcome," said Keim, "if it kicked in soon enough."
And that's the tricky part: this El Niño might not start until late summer. And La Niña conditions, which historically make the Atlantic hurricane season busier, may not be totally eliminated by June 1, the start of the season.
