Colorado State University is once again lowering its hurricane forecast for 2026.
Senior Research Scientist Phil Klotzbach says the forecast now calls for nine named storms, including Arthur, including four hurricanes, with one of them being a major hurricane.
“For reference, an average season has about 14 storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. We’re now forecasting a well-below-normal hurricane season,” Klotzbach noted.
Klotzbach says the main driver behind the well-below-normal hurricane forecast is a strong El Niño event for the peak of hurricane season.
“El Niño, which is warmer-than-normal waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, really tends to increase levels of what we call vertical windshear, which is the change in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. Too much of that shear is good for us, bad for the hurricane; it tends to tear apart the storms,” Klotzbach explained.
Klotzbach says in April they predicted 13 named storms, in June they dropped that total to eleven and now they believe this year will produce nine named storms and that includes Tropical Storm Arthur.
“We update the forecast; as we get closer to the peak of the season, the forecasts typically get better. A lot of it is just because of the fact that we’re getting closer to the events that you’re trying to predict, so we have more confidence in what the atmosphere and the ocean look like,” Klotzbach said.
