We're less than three months away from the New Orleans mayor's election, and polling shows that Helena Moreno has a commanding lead in the race. However, one political analyst warns, Moreno's base could erode between now and Election Day.
"Finishing second doesn't matter if Moreno gets a majority in the primary, so it's a two-fold challenge to the other major candidates," political analyst Clancy Dubos said.
According to Dubos, Moreno's three major opponents, Royce Duplessis, Oliver Thomas, and Arthur Hunter, need to fight among themselves to get into second place while simultaneously working together to get as many of their supporters to vote on election day to prevent Moreno from winning outright in the primary. Dubos says that will be a tall order, especially considering Orleans Parish's history of low voter turnout.
"When you look at the decided vote, Moreno has 47 percent, and the three of them together have 35 percent," Dubos noted. "(Voter) turnout is only going to be, probably, somewhere between 40 and 50 percent. That's what we see historically except when it's a really low turnout. I'm talking about a decent turnout would be around 40 to 50 percent. Moreno, not that her 47 percent means that she's gonna get 90 percent of the vote . . . it's all about each candidate turning out as many of his or her votes as he or she can get. Between the three of them and the lesser-known candidates, they need to get more votes than Moreno in the primary, but she has such a commanding lead."
Dubos says Moreno must stay agressive in her campaigning if she wants to have a chance to win the election outright in the primary. He says if Moreno and her campaign get too comfortable with that lead, Duplessis, Thomas, or Hunter could force a November runoff.
"She can't afford to be complacent about it," Dubos said.
