Today marks the statistical peak of hurricane season, and so far, the Gulf Coast has seen no threats from tropical systems. However, National Weather Service forecasters urge you: don't let your guard down.
"We still have a long way to go in the season," National Weather Service meteorologist Phil Grigsby said. "If you remember, even in 2020, we had hurricanes that were happening around Halloween."
Grigsby says frontal systems over the United States and wind shear in the Atlantic have helped to keep storms away from the Gulf Coast, but Grigsby says the perception that this year's hurricane forecast is a bust is anything but valid.
"These frontal systems that have been coming down into the area are tied in with a persistent trough of low pressure that we've had over the eastern half of the country, and that really hasn't broken down yet or gone away, and that's been protecting us," Grigsby said. "Those two things in tandem have been really helping to keep things away from us, but the pattern could shift. The patterns could change. We have a long way to go. If the wind shear dies down and if we stop seeing these fronts moving through, things could still move towards us."
Grigsby says even though this is statistically the busiest part of hurricane season, that doesn't mean we won't see a storm before the end of the season on November 30.
"Even though the probabilities are lower at that time--climatology says that our peak is usually around now--that doesn't mean we can't see something even as late as Halloween timeframe, late October or early November," Grigsby said. "Everybody should still keep their guard up."
Forecasters say they don't expect any tropical activity in the next seven to 10 days.