As the candidates running for New Orleans mayor prepare to debate on WWL-TV Tuesday night, the two candidates trailing front-runner Helena Moreno are seeking ways to force a November runoff.
According to a recent poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Moreno has enough voter support to win the New Orleans mayor's race outright in the October 11 primary. That survey says Moreno has 51 percent support, while Oliver Thomas and Royce Duplessis have 16 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
Do Thomas and Duplessis have a window to force a runoff? The pollster who conducted the survey says, "Yes."
"I believe there is," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said. "Eighty-two percent of the undecided voters are African-American, and the majority of those are female."
Coker says Moreno is the dominant candidate among white voters, but he says undecided Black voters will determine if a November general election will take place.
"The Black vote is split: She's only getting 33 percent. Thomas is getting 27. Duplessis is getting 16," Coker said. "The Black community right now is very fluid. I could see Moreno's numbers among African-American voters slipping, and I could see one of the other two Democrats picking up some of that."
And that, Coker says, is what Duplessis and Thomas hopes happens.
"It's not going to take much to pull Moreno under 50 (percent) in the right circumstance, but then becomes big issue is: who finishes second, Thomas or Duplessis?" Coker said. "Right now, Moreno's fate is tied to whatever percent she can get in the Black community. If she can hold it around 33 (percent), I think that'll get her over the hump. She may even gain more votes because of that undecided block. If those voters decide to go for Thomas or Duplessis in any way and some of her current support there peels back a little bit, she could be stuck in the high 40s, and that would force the runoff."
Moreno, Duplessis, and Thomas are scheduled to take part in a televised debate tonight at 7 p.m. on WWL-TV.
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