Louisiana passed the grim milestone of 15,000 confirmed COVID-related deaths yesterday, but there are good reasons to believe it may be the last major fatal pandemic milestone we hit.
“I think that, I hope, that we are not going to come to another doubling of our mortality, I actually think that if in fact the next variant, and the variant after that, are similarly mild we may not reach 20,000,” said Tulane Epidemiologist Dr. Susan Hassig. “But it is all dependent on the virus.”
Hassig notes Omicron is, so far, killing a lower rate of those infected, and the rate of deaths at similar points in past waves is noticeably lower than it is right now. That’s partly due to lower virulence, but also the result of a successful campaign to vaccinate the most vulnerable.
“The fact that our most vulnerable population, those individuals with severe comorbidities and advanced age, are really, heavily vaccinated, is a lot of what is preventing the extreme mortality that we saw in those first couple of waves,” said Hassig. “They are the people with the preexisting conditions, but they are also the people who are most highly vaccinated right now and that is what is keeping us safe from death.”
Hassig is confident the rate of death will continue to decline as long as people get vaccinated, but that’s not the only damage being done by COVID. As deaths decline total hospitalizations continue to balloon due to Omicron. Over 1,100 Louisianans are stuck in hospital beds with the bug as of January 3rd, 2022.
Hassig warned we could face a future wherein fewer and fewer people die but the healthcare system continues to be battered by waves of hospitalizations, largely from people who are unvaccinated.
“That is really a tremendous concern, not only because the personnel working in healthcare are totally exhausted, but also that by displacement of available treatment opportunities and beds to COVID, other people are not going to get the care they need,” said Hassig who warned we still don’t have a full accounting of mortality from other causes sparked by the COVID hammering of the healthcare system.
