The low-pressure system off the United States Gulf Coast is now Tropical Storm Bertha.
The National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to tropical storm status with its 7 p.m. update. According to the NHC’s advisory, Bertha’s maximum sustained winds are 40 miles per hour. The center of circulation is located about 110 miles south of Panama City, Florida, and is moving west-northwest at three miles per hour.
Plaquemines Parish and Jefferson Parish are now under a tropical storm watch. Meanwhile, a storm surge warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida State Line.
The NHC’s latest forecast track moves the forecast track farther north. That track shows Bertha making landfall in Plaquemines Parish around 12 a.m. Thursday. However, the NHC’s forecasters admit that conditions along the Gulf Coast make it difficult for them to predict how Bertha will move.
“The guidance is in overall agreement that the cyclone should move slowly northwestward to west-northwestward for 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west,” the NHC’s forecast discussion said. “However, there is some spread in the guidance in the first 36-48 hours about how close the center comes to the northern Gulf Coast and how sharp the westward turn would be. The new forecast track lies between these two clusters of models and is a little to the north of the previous track. It should be noted that strong northeasterly shear is forecast over the cyclone, which could keep the center south of the forecast track due to the effects of convective bursts. However, there are models such as the ECMWF and Canadian that bring the system inland on the northern Gulf Coast.”
