The bad news: The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Tropical Storm Ian has shifted westward.
The good news: That track still predicts that Ian will make landfall in Florida.
The NHC's 7 p.m. CDT forecast track moves all of the Florida panhandle into the cone of uncertainty and projects Ian's landfall to happen late Thursday southeast of Tallahassee. Other forecast details, such as Ian weakening from a Category 4 to Category 2 before landfall, have not changed.
Hurricane hunters say Ian is still organizing over the the central Caribbean Sea. As of the 7 p.m. update, Ian has maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour. It is located at 14.6° North, 77.1° West--about 225 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica--and moving west at 14 miles per hour.
Before it reaches the Gulf Coast, Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall acros Jamaica and Cuba, causing flash flooding and mudslides on those islands before battering Grand Cayman early in the week. According to NHC forecasters, ian is expected to be a major hurricaen by the time its eye passes near or over western Cuba.
The NHC says the forecast track is not exact and that residents of the Florida Gulf Coast should be prepared.
"Ian is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, but uncertainty of the track forecast is higher than usual," NHC forecasters wrote in their 4 p.m. CDT key messages. "Regardless of Ian's exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week."