Nola.com reports carjackings have fallen off significantly over the last month compared to the numbers we saw at the start of the year, but experts say it’s tough to know exactly why.
The story shows carjackings were down 66% in the 30 days ending on March 14th compared to the same period ending in late July, when the numbers peaked on January 26th. The Metropolitan Crime Commission shows there has still been about one carjacking every two days over the last month, with a year-to-date total of 83 at the start of the week, up from 57 in 2021, 46 in 2020, and 18 in 2019.
What’s behind the dramatic decline? Criminologists say there are a few possibilities.
After a public outcry earlier this year numbers both the Cantrell Administration and the DA vowed a carjacking crackdown. That involved reviving the multi-agency gang unit, pulling in additional federal resources, reemphasizing proactive policing, and other moves.
Southern University Criminologist Dr. John Penny told WWL it could be that these efforts have paid off.
“I think it is the result of the awareness and the fact that the city has come to the conclusion that this cannot continue, and strategies by the police department to make sure that the city is one that will be welcoming,” said Penny.
Penny noted NOPD doubled down on focusing on the most dangerous “nuisance” elements driving carjacking numbers.
“You place your resources mainly where your problems are and that is what I think has come about as a result of what were the carjackings that had been heretofore,” said Penny who noted that these strategies are easier to pull off now that pandemic conditions have improved. “Maybe we weren’t paying a lot of attention to what was going on in the social elements.”
Another possibility is that this trend is occurring independently of city policy. Loyola Criminologist George Capowich told WWL after hitting historic highs earlier this year we could be regressing to the mean.
“What’s likely to have happened is because carjackings spiked the first couple of months of the year, now they are just of their own accord coming down,” said Capowich who added similar blips are common in crime stats and without a bigger sample size drawing any conclusion is difficult. “That kind of variation is very, very common.”
Capowich said it’s not that the policies being pursued by the city are necessarily wrong, but he’s doubtful that those policies can be tied to this reduction.
“There’s just nothing in the research literature over the last several decades that would tell us those would likely result in a reduction,” said Capowich.
Both criminologists warned that this downturn in carjacking numbers could be reversed as we head into the traditionally higher-crime summer months.
