As tension and fighting continues in the Middle East, attention is again being drawn to a potential nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. How close is it to becoming a reality?
According to the Associated Press, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office Friday that a nuclear deal with Iran could happen “in the not too distant future.”
This week, Bruce Jentleson, a professor of public policy and political science at Duke University who has previously worked in the State Department and on the Middle East peace process, joined Audacy to discuss.
He started by discussing the history of nuclear agreements between the two nations with WWL’s Tommy Tucker. Jentleson explained that, when former President Barack Obama was in office in 2015, an agreement that prevented Iran from developing nuclear weapons kicked in. However, current President Donald Trump backed out of that agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, during his first term.
Back when that deal was brokered in the 2010s, Russia and China worked on it with the U.S. Jentleson noted that the relationship between the U.S. and those nations is now very different, especially in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Trump’s recent tariff actions against China and other nations.
“It wasn’t a perfect deal… but it was actually working pretty well,” he said.
In the years since, Iran has gotten closer to developing nuclear weapons, though Jentleson said it seems that they have not developed one yet. At this point, they have substantial supplies of uranium for the purpose of nuclear energy. Jentleson told Tucker that, with no agreement, Iran could have its own nuclear weapon within a year or two.
If they do, the professor said that weapon would likely be used as leverage rather than in active warfare. However, nearby Israel is one of the few nations in the world with nuclear capabilities. Since October 2023, Israel has been at war with Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist organization with ties to Iran, increasing tension between the two nations.
Earlier this year, Audacy reported on the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moving its Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight due to the ongoing wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Last February, the Bulletin covered a war game scenario about a potential nuclear conflict between Israel and Iran starting in 2027.
Moves of the game began with Israeli intelligence finding out about Iranian nuclear capabilities. They were followed by warfare between the nations and a U.S. refusal to step in. Eventually, it ended with both nations using nuclear weapons against each other.
Research on such a scenario published in 2013 said that: “Nuclear weapon detonations in the densely populated cities of Iran and Israel will result in an unprecedented millions of numbers of dead, with millions of injured suffering without adequate medical care, a broad base of lingering mental health issues, a devastating loss of municipal infrastructure, long-term disruption of economic, educational, and other essential social activity, and a breakdown in law and order.”
Jentleson noted that agreements such as the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran are complicated.
“Which is why when President Trump announces; ‘Hey we’re going to have a deal in two days,’ you almost worry… it wouldn’t have the details set and then it would fall apart. It could be worse than no deal at all,” he said.
Still, Jentleson said it isn’t a given that Iran will be able to develop a nuclear weapon. In addition to a potential nuclear deal with the U.S., he said that diplomacy progress regarding Iran is also happening elsewhere in the Middle East, due to talks with Saudi Arabia facilitated by China.
And that’s not a terrible thing, frankly,” he said. “I think it’s a very good thing for the region and for us because it can help with one of the elements of stability in the region.”
Indeed, Reuters reported Friday that Saudi Arabia's defense minister has “delivered a blunt message to Iranian officials in Tehran last month,” to take up Trump on his offer to negotiate a nuclear agreement in order to avoid war with Israel.