With more than two-thirds of Louisiana's parishes reporting early voting results, Jeff Landry has a better chance at winning the Louisiana governor's office outright in the primary election than previously expected. That's according to one analyst who's crunching the numbers.
John Couvillon of JMC Analytics says with 42 of the 64 parishes reporting early voting returns, Landry has 47 percent of the vote. That two points higher than Couvillon's initial projections. Couvillon told WWL's Dave Cohen that he believes the election day vote totals will skew a few points higher for Landry and other Republican candidates.
"It is possible to discuss the possibility of Jeff getting 50 percent tonight given the overwhelming support I'm seeing in the rural areas as well as the fact that he got a 35-31 lead out of the Jefferson Parish early vote, which is typically more Democratic than the election day vote in Jefferson Parish," Couvillon said. "I'm seeing Jeff overperforming relative to my expectations, and I'm not seeing a single instance of (Democratic candidate) Shawn (Wilson) overperforming, which means two things: either (a) there was lower-than-expected Black turnout, or (b) Jeff is pulling off a piece of the Black vote, and that directly impacts what Shawn could get."
Still, Couvillon says the odds of Landry winning the gubernatorial race outright in the primary remain low for now.
"I'm going to say 25-percent odds right now," Couvillon said. "As the election day/precinct vote comes in, I'm going to revise that. Plus, I want to see what some of the larger parishes are doing with regards to the Landry/Wilson split."
Couvillon says the primary is a two-candidate race, and that no one other than Landry or Wilson has a chance to make the runoff.
"None of the other candidates are doing anything significant with the early vote coming in," Couvillon said.
