JMC Analytics publisher John Couvillon told WWL’s Tommy Tucker that the changing racial demographics of New Orleans are behind the recent surge of progressive candidates. He said the trend is particularly notable in the Sheriff’s race and the contest for District B.
Couvillon said traditional, Black voters are seeing their share of the vote shrink in recent years as white progressive gentrifiers continue to move into historically Black parts of the city.
“The Sheriff and the Council District B to me are the most interesting because you have this undercurrent since Katrina of all of this gentrification going on, which is causing the Black majority to decline down towards 50%, or in the case of District B below 50%,” said Couvillon.
That trend of whiter, more progressive voters is boosting more progressive-leaning candidates like Lesli Harris in District B, and Sheriff’s candidate Susan Hutson, while making it more challenging for incumbents Jay Banks and Sheriff Marlin Gusman.
“Those white voters coming in are very, very liberal,” said Couvillon. “You basically have in the Sheriff and Council B race kind of the old regulars vs. the young progressives.”
Couvillon is expecting turnout of about 20% percent, down from about 29% in the primary. Couvillon said turnout is going to be a bit dire largely because the election is being held during the holiday season.
