We're one month away from qualifying for the Louisiana governor's race, and Republican attorney general Jeff Landry continues to lead the field.
According to a new Kaplan Strategies survey, Landry polled at 30 percent, eight points higher than Democratic former DOTD secretary Shawn Wilson and 24 points highter than his closest Republican competitor, former Jindal Administration official Stephen Waguespack.
Observers say both Wilson and Waguespack have opportunities to gain ground in the three months before the election.
"In Shawn Wilson's case, he has the easiest job of all. He's the only major Democrat running," JMC Analytics founder and pollster John Couvillon said. "Shawn Wilson's job before October 14th is to start corralling soft partisans and/or independents."
Couvillon believes it's extremely unlikely any other big-name Democrats to jump into the race. That, Couvillon says, "pretty much guarantees" that Wilson will make the runoff.
According to Couvillon, Waguespack will have more difficulty gaining ground.
"There's two things he has to do: either (a) steal votes away from Jeff Landry or (b) carve out territory for himself," Couvillon said. "I would say the constituency for that to happen would ironically be, or interestingly be, in . . . places like the Eastbank of Jefferson Parish, St. Tammany, the Northshore, and, of course, East Baton Rouge. That, to me, is where Stephen Waguespack has to gain ground if he wants to have a serious chance at toppling Jeff Landry."
As for Landry: Couvillon says the attorney general has a solid base that will allow him to focus not on the October primary but on the November runoff.
"What I have seen in virtually every case is Jeff Landry has a very solid base in rural Louisiana, whether you're talking about north or south Louisiana," Couvillon said, adding that Landry's base will give him more opportunities to go on the offensive against his opponents. "So in Jeff Landry's case, what I'm referring to is getting enough of those voters in October as kind of (a) a show of strength or (b) as a way of keeping them on his side in the runoff."
The four other major candidates in the race--Republican state treasurer John Schroder, Republican state Senator Sharon Hewitt, Republican state Representative Richard Nelson, and independent attorney Hunter Lundy--all polled between two and six percent.
