Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are basically tied in national polling with the election about 6 months away. Former President Trump continues to win primaries, but the number of votes former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is receiving should be seen as a warning sign for the Trump campaign. The number of Republicans who do not identify with the MAGA movement is a powerful statement to Trump’s problems attracting Independents and Moderate Republicans.
Tuesday was the Indiana primary and with Trump the presumed winner of the Republican nomination, Americans are no longer paying attention to the results of primaries, but the results reveal possible problems for the hopes of Trump supporters who believe that democracy is dead if Trump doesn’t win.
Donald Trump has been very successful during the primaries of 2024 and Tuesday in the Indiana primary, Trump won with over 78% of the vote, but Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race 2 months ago, won 21.7% of the vote. In some areas of Indiana, Haley won over 30% of the vote.
On Super Tuesday, Haley won 37% of the vote in Massachusetts, 34% of the vote in Colorado, and 29% of the vote in Minnesota. In Pennsylvania, Haley won 16.6% of the vote in April.
Donald Trump may be winning Republican primaries by large margins, but the number of votes that Nikki Haley is getting in nearly every primary should be a clear warning that Trump is not doing well with Independents and Moderate Republicans, who along with Moderate Democrats actually determine the outcome of presidential elections.
Even more troubling for Trump is the number of Republicans who do not align themselves with the MAGA movement. Exit polls showed that over 50% of Republican voters do not support the MAGA movement. In Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, over 20% said they don’t want Trump to win the nomination and 30% said Trump would be unfit to serve as president if he is convicted.
The Biden campaign issued a video of Nikki Haley voters who said they will not vote for Trump. As I have talked about, mainstream Republicans are finally starting to call out Trump and MAGA supporters as a radical faction within the Republican Party, with a few going so far as to say that these right-wing radicals are trying to destroy the party. Former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan of Georgia is one of the recent mainstream Republicans to announce that he will not vote for Trump and will vote for President Biden.
Anti-MAGA Republican voters represent a majority of Republican voters in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, New Hampshire, and Iowa. In all of those states, between 52% and 63% of the Republican voters declared they are not part of the MAGA movement.
A lot can happen between now and November. The Summer of 2024 will prove to be a volatile season for campaigning and conventions. Trump may win the nomination and he may win the election, but, right now, there is obviously a large number of Republican voters who are not Trump or MAGA supporters and that group of Independents and Moderate Republicans could lead to the re-election of President Biden.
