LAKE FOREST, Ill. (670 The Score) — With an offer on the table to become the new general manager of the Bears back in January 2022, Ryan Poles had a decision to make and a flight to catch.
Poles was set to travel north to Minnesota to meet with the Vikings regarding their general manager opening. He never boarded that flight, instead staying put in Lake Forest and signing a contract to accept the Bears’ job.
In taking over the Bears’ football operations, Poles had the blessing of chairman George McCaskey to lead the franchise through a rebuilding process. As the Bears went an NFL-worst 3-14 in 2022, the Vikings went 13-4 to win the NFC North.
On Sunday at Soldier Field, the Bears (4-6) will host the Vikings (8-2) with the teams heading in opposite directions. Chicago hoped to enjoy a breakthrough 2024 season, but its current four-game losing streak has called into question whether it has the right leaders in place. Meanwhile, Minnesota appears bound for the playoffs once again.
The Bears and Vikings were in similar positions back in January 2022, as each was searching for a new general manager and a new head coach. Those hiring decisions set them on different paths forward.
The best-laid plans of Poles have gone awry, while Vikings third-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has led his franchise to continued success. But the main difference between the two teams has come in coaching.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell, who was hired by Adofo-Mensah, has a 28-16 record over three seasons. O’Connell has the best record of any active coach in one-score games, posting a 22-10 mark in that span.
As his team won the division in 2022, O’Connell guided the Vikings to 11 victories in one-score games.
Bears head coach Matt Eberflus – who was hired by Poles and retained by Poles for this third season in Chicago – has a 14-30 record overall. That includes a damning 5-17 mark in one-score games, which is by far the worst of any active coach.
Eberflus’ .227 winning percentage in one-score games is far below the second-worst mark of any active coach, as the Bengals' Zac Taylor is 21-32 (.396) in one-score contests.
What’s especially glaring about Eberflus’ struggles is how the Bears have failed to close games they seemingly had in the bag. Since 2022, Chicago has six losses in games in which it had more than an 83% win probability at some point in the contest, according to ESPN metrics.
The Bears have lost four games in which their win probability reached more than 95%.
“The record’s not where it needs to be in one-score games,” Eberflus said. “We know that. But we’re just that far away too. There’s a lot of good things that happened during the course of those games, and we’ve just got to learn how to finish better as a group.”
Eberflus’ glass-half-full perspective was endearing during his first two years as head coach, when the Bears were a younger team scuffling through a rebuild. He kept the locker room intact despite the struggles.
In 2023, the Bears lost three games in which they had better than a 91% win probability. Each time, they responded the following week with victories that underscored Eberflus’ firm grip on the locker room. It’s part of why Poles and management at Halas Hall retained Eberflus for a third season.
But the circumstances are different in 2024. The Bears have key veterans who understand the NFL’s realities differently. Since their stunning loss to the Commanders on a last-second Hail Mary on Oct. 27, the Bears have yet to respond with a win.
What followed that devastating loss were plenty of questions about Eberflus’ abilities as a coach and players openly questioning the staff's decisions. Had the Bears batted down that Hail Mary heave and kicker Cairo Santos booted a game-winning field-goal attempt over the hands of Packers defensive lineman Karl Brooks and through the uprights this past Sunday, Chicago would be 6-4 and sitting firmly in the playoff picture.
Instead, it seems like Chicago has never recovered from its gut-wrenching loss in Washington.
Under Eberflus' watch, the Bears have been anything but resilient. Meanwhile in Minnesota, the Vikings have won five games by one score this season and O’Connell is building a case to win the Coach of the Year award.
Poles’ grand plan for the Bears has been jeopardized by Eberflus' coaching failures. It’s why come this offseason, Poles may be leading the search for the next Bears head coach.
Keeping it 100
Bears linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will attain a unique feat of history when he steps on the field Sunday.
Edmunds, 26, will become the youngest player in NFL history to play 100 career games. He debuted in September 2018, just four months after his 20th birthday. Edmunds was a first-round pick of the Bills at the age of 19, becoming the second-youngest prospect ever drafted.
While Edmunds has played just one full season in his career, he has never missed more than three games in a season.
"It would mean a whole lot better once we get the win,” Edmunds said of the upcoming achievement. “That's definitely a good stat. I'm definitely going to be feeling good. I think it will really set in when I'm celebrating in the locker room with my teammates. So, as good as that sounds, a W on the board would feel a whole lot better, to be honest."
Quote to note
"There are no atta-boys in this game. We play the game to win, and we came up short."
— Bears offensive coordinator Thomas Brown on his unit's success in a loss to the Packers
Emma’s prediction (6-4): Vikings 23, Bears 16
On paper, this is a terrible matchup for Caleb Williams against an aggressive, attacking Vikings defense. It’s hard to see the Bears finishing drives with touchdowns. Chicago suffers its fifth loss in a row.
Chris Emma covers the Bears, Chicago’s sports scene and more for 670TheScore.com. Follow him on Twitter @CEmma670.