The College Football Gametime Podcast is counting down to college football by going around the SEC and ACC to give a 2021 season preview. Join us every Tuesday at 8:00 PM on the 92.9 The Game Facebook Live!
Next up, the University of North Carolina:
The Tar Heels are surging under third-year head coach Mack Brown. Between 2017 and 2018, this squad was a dismal 5-18. Under Brown, this team has tripled that win total. They’ve had two bowl trips, including an Orange Bowl appearance last season, after not appearing in one since 2016. Last season’s #18 ranking was only their second national ranking to close a season since Mack Brown was last in this role in 1997. Expectations are high going into the 2021 season. The question is not if the Tar Heels can compete, it’s how far they can go.
Let’s break it down:
Offense
Offensive coordinator Phil Longo is back to call plays for the Tar Heels after leading this offense to new heights in 2020. With pre-season Heisman hopeful Sam Howell back under center, North Carolina will look to exceed last season’s numbers. That offense produced 547 yards per game and 41.7 points per game, both setting new school records.
This offense was explosive. The Tar Heels scored 66 offensive touchdowns in 152 drives in 2020, meaning they found the end zone in 43.4 percent of its possessions (best in ACC and sixth in the FBS). That explosiveness all starts with the play of its quarterback, whose 68 passing touchdowns through two seasons exceed any in ACC history (Trevor Lawrence is second with 66). His 3,586 passing yards were also good enough to rank fourth nationally. He’s billed as a Heisman-hopeful for a very good reason.
Sam Howell will be counted on big time in 2021, especially considering whom this offense lost in terms of skill players.
The rushing attack that produced a carry of 10+ yards on 22.2 percent of every carry – best in the nation – lost both of its bell cows to the NFL. Without thousand-yard rushers Javonte Williams and Michael Carter to carry the load, Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler will be counted to produce, and produce quickly. Fortunately for the Tar Heels, Chandler is known to produce at a high level and he’s a virtual “plug-and-play”. While at Tennessee, he accounted for 3,191 all-purpose yards across 46 games. As Chandler shoulders the early weight of carries, look for newcomer Kamarro Edmonds to step in and carve out some playing time for himself as the season moves on.
The rushing attack should receive plenty of support, not only because of the ever-present threat that Howell provides over the top, but because UNC returns its entire offensive line. In fact, the top six linemen combine for 112 career starts. That sort of experience cannot be overvalued, especially considering the record setting performance this rushing attack experienced in 2020. While they have room to improve in terms of sack prevention, this unit should rank among the ACC’s best in 2021.
Running back isn’t the only area that departures hit this Tar Heel offense hard. The wide receiver room lost its two top producers in Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, or nearly 50 percent of Sam Howell’s passing yards. That will be difficult for this unit to replace, but they have some talent that can step in here. Look for Beau Corrales to step in here and alleviate some of the pressure across the middle with Josh Downs and Khame Brown available to stretch the field on the outside. Tight end Garrett Walston is another reliable target across the middle for Howell to rely on.
Rarely do teams just replace the production that UNC lost, but Mack Brown has recruited well enough to put this offense in a good place. The weapons will be young, but a fully functioning offseason should pay dividends for the Tar Heels. Having Sam Howell at quarterback certainly helps, but there is enough talent around him to push the records from a season ago.
Defense
Coming out of 2020, one thing is for certain: this was an offensive football team. That said, teams would be foolish to discount the ability of Jay Bateman’s defense to play some complimentary football in 2021. There is clear room for improvement with this defense allowing 29.4 points per game and forcing an ACC worst 11 turnovers, but they return the majority of starters from 2020.
The strength of this defense can be found inside with a strong defensive line presence and an ability to get after the passer. Credit Mack Brown here, because this was wildly viewed as a weakness for the Tar Heels, but this group turned in a whopping 36 sacks in 2020 (third in the ACC). A large chunk of that production returns for next season, headlined by brothers Tomon and Tomari Fox, who combined for 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss. An interesting name to watch is Desmond Evans, the top recruit in North Carolina in 2020. For as much talent as he has, he’s every bit as massive coming in at 6-6, 245 lbs. The young pass rusher could prove to be an X-Factor for this group if he develops quickly.
At the second level, UNC will be replacing their leading tackler in Chazz Surratt, but Jeremiah Gemmel is a force on the inside and he returns to spearhead the linebacker core. The Tar Heels will certainly need him, as they don’t have a wealth of experience at inside linebacker behind him. Somebody to watch here is Eugene Asante. He had two starts in 2020, including when he had a team-best 10 tackles in the Orange Bowl against Texas A&M.
With some of the best quarterback play in the country hailing from the ACC in 2021, a strong defensive backfield is critical for it contenders. Fortunately for the Tar Heels, they can boast what could be one of the premiere units in the ACC with Storm Duck (cool name alert), Tony Grimes, and Kyler McDaniel coming back at cornerback. Duck was one of the conference’s rising stars before missing much of the 2020 season with an injury, but he’s back and will be fighting for a starting position this offseason. The other two performed well in his absence, but they will benefit from his return to the rotation.
North Carolina is fortunate to not need their defense to win them many football games, but that’s not a knock on the group. This defense should be able to play some strong complementary football that could set them up to have success throughout the season. As long as this offense can put up points, the defense should be able to flex its pass-rushing muscle and hopefully build upon its lackluster turnover production in 2021.
Season Outlook
While the Tar Heels enjoyed their best season since 2015, but they missed too many opportunities in 2020 losing two winnable games by three points apiece. If Mack Brown and company want to seek higher goals, they cannot afford to drop games like that in 2021.
With this season likely to be the last with Sam Howell under center, there is a looming sense of urgency in Chapel Hill. UNC’s conference schedule is quite manageable – meaning no Clemson. They do open with a difficult test against Virginia Tech up in Blacksburg, but they shouldn’t have any other stumbling blocks until the likely winner-take-all matchup against Miami in Chapel Hill. North Carolina, and the country alike, should find out pretty quickly if this team is for real or not with five division matchups in its first seven weeks of play.
Mack Brown will look to keep this offense as diverse as it was in 2020. If he can do that, and this defense can continue to compliment it, expect this team to be the favorite in the ACC Coastal.
Will they be enough to beat Clemson? Now that’s a different question entirely, but Mack Brown has this program moving in the right direction.